RUN-OFF ELECTION FAR FROM PREDICTABLE AS TURKEY PREPARES TO RETURN TO THE POLLS
▶ Economic concerns and status of Syrian refugees remain key issues for voters, analysts say
Turks will vote on Sunday in the second round of a hotly contested presidential election that could leave incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan out of a job after almost a decade in the post.
Mr Erdogan changed the system in 2017, allowing voters to select their leader rather than the parliament.
None of the three candidates in the May 14 election achieved the 50 per cent threshold, leading to a run-off between Mr Erdogan and rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who leads the Nation Alliance. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, has declared his support for Mr Erdogan.
Mr Erdogan’s consolidation of power in 2017 and 2018 means Turkey is now one of the world’s most highly centralised democracies.
“The President is able to effectively rule the country by decree,” Guney Yildiz, a researcher at the University of Cambridge, told The National.
Mr Kilicdaroglu has promised to undo two decades of centralisation under Mr Erdogan’s government, giving more power to the parliament, local bodies and the judiciary.
But even if Mr Kilicdaroglu triumphs, achieving those aims might not be easy.
“One of the first orders of business, the opposition has said, is reverting back to a decentralised system of power but with a majority of 320 out of 600 seats in parliament, the ruling AKP party still holds all the cards,” Mr Yildiz said.
The economy has been a huge issue in recent years following a slide in the currency’s value and a cost-of-living crisis brought on by Mr Erdogan’s policy of slashing interest rates despite soaring inflation.
One of the most significant differences between Mr Erdogan and his rival is their policies on Syrian refugees.
Turkey hosts about four million refugees who have fled the war in Syria since 2011. Many face discrimination on a daily basis and have been accused of fuelling the economic crisis.
The data says they have made a net positive contribution, according to an August report from US-based NGO Building Markets.
Mr Kilicdaroglu has vowed to crack down on Syrian refugees and send them home.
This has worried many of the nearly 200,000 Syrians who have been granted Turkish citizenship over the past decade.
“There are many reasons why Syrians are voting for Erdogan,” said Orwa Ajjoub, of the Centre for Operational Analysis and Research.
“Erdogan stands out from his political rivals by promising not to repatriate Syrian refugees unless they voluntarily choose to return.
“That’s not the case with his opponent, who is adamant to send them back. If it wasn’t for Erdogan’s ruling AKP party they wouldn’t have gotten their citizenship. This makes him a favourable choice for many Syrians in Turkey.”
Analysts are expecting a victory for Mr Erdogan, but they did not anticipate the vote reaching a second round.
“The largest political camp is anti-Erdoganism,” Mr Yildiz said. “In the beginning of the elections, the opposition was divided among four candidates. But now, there are two main rivals. We are in uncharted territory in the run-offs.”
Mr Erdogan received a boost from Mr Ogan’s endorsement this week.
Mr Ogan won just over five per cent of the vote in the first round, but that doesn’t mean an easy win for Mr Erdogan in the second round.
Political analysts such as Seren Selvin Korkmaz say the support for the opposition would have been greater had there been unity against the President. “The fact the opposition got 45 per cent of the vote is important,” said Ms Korkmaz, executive director of Istanbul-based think tank the IstanPol Institute.
“If Mr Ogan did not run, Kilicdaroglu would have gotten more than this percentage – up to 49 per cent.”
The bruising first round has also left its mark.
“Given the damage that was done by Mr Erdogan’s campaign against Mr Kilicdaroglu through the fabrication of his ties to the PKK, the opposition has a very, very difficult job in the second round,” Ms Korkmaz said.
While the opposition claimed there were irregularities in the first round of the election, there were no claims of widespread fraud. International observers have not raised any issues.
The concern has been around freedom of speech and the media’s role in the election.
Reporters Without Borders put Turkey 165th of 180 countries for media freedom, saying that “more than 90 per cent of the national media is now under government control”.
Critics argue this has given Mr Erdogan monopolistic public access through the media.
The Office of the Special Representative and Co-ordination in Europe said after the first poll that the ruling party had an “unjustified advantage, including through biased media coverage”.
“The continued restrictions on fundamental freedoms of assembly, association and expression hindered the participation of some opposition politicians and parties, civil society and independent media in the election process,” the OSCE’s Michael Georg Link said before the first-round vote.
One example came early this month, when Mr Erdogan showed a video at a rally of his opposition rival followed by clips of Murat Karayilan, one of the founders of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which Turkey has designated a terrorist organisation.
Mr Erdogan suggested that the PKK was involved in Mr Kilicdaroglu’s campaign.
“This is against Turkish law which prohibits knowingly sharing false information for political gains,” Mr Yildiz said. “So Erdogan broke his own law.” Mr Erdogan later admitted that the video was a montage.
“I am tired of being slandered, but he is not tired of slandering me,” Mr Kilicdaroglu wrote in a tweet following the admission.
In recent years, Mr Erdogan has used his power to influence local electoral decisions.
“In 2019, his party lost municipal elections by a small margin of 13,000 votes in Istanbul,” Mr Yildiz said.
Then the judiciary “annulled the election”, Mr Yildiz said, following numerous complaints from Mr Erdogan and his AKP. Another round was held within two months.
“In that round, people reacted negatively to Erdogan not accepting the poll results,” Mr Yildiz said. “He lost by 18,000 votes this time as people increasingly voted against him.”