The Cop28 deal is about more than climate

▶ The consensus will enable the reorganisation of the world’s economic and energy systems

Several times during his valedictory speech to climate delegates gathered at Expo City Dubai yesterday, Cop28 President Dr Sultan Al Jaber referred to the “North Star” – in this case, a commitment to limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

“Many said this could not be done,” Dr Al Jaber said to applause. “But when I spoke to you at the very start of this Cop, I promised a different sort of Cop. A Cop that brought everyone together, private and public sectors, civil society, NGOs and faith leaders and indigenous peoples.

“Everyone came together from day one, everyone united, everyone acted – and everyone delivered.”

It is true that the “UAE consensus” that emerged after two weeks of intense negotiations is something to value. For the first time in nearly three decades of UN climate talks, a commitment to reducing fossil fuel production and use has been agreed to. A commitment to make such fuels net zero by 2050 is a more ambitious target than some have set themselves to date, including China’s date of 2060 and India’s goal of 2070. Nations have also been called on to substantially reduce emissions, “including in particular methane emissions by 2030”.

Cop28 represents a victory for ambition, compromise and pragmatism. Those qualities will have to remain in abundance as the world figures out how to achieve these targets.

The scale of the task ahead is unprecedented. The problems posed by climate change require solutions across sectors. What was being considered at Cop28 is no less than a wholesale reimagination of how the worldwide economy operates. Now delegates have given themselves a timetable of just a few decades to achieve net-zero emissions. It is a task almost without parallel. Building a net-zero economy will require a $3.5 trillion average annual capital investment until 2050. How do we get to there from here, and how will we pay for it?

It will require each country to develop and implement policies and subsidy programmes, not just at home but abroad, for the long term.

One positive is that the energy transition offers significant investment opportunities for private capital as interest in fossil fuels decreases. It is also a catalyst for technological innovation – much of the cutting-edge work on renewable energy is being pioneered in the UAE and other Gulf states where the link with business is strong.

The transition envisaged at Cop28 has to potential to transform and enrich entire regions. Nevertheless, the reality is that middle and low-income countries will require financial help, particularly low-cost finance, to make their transition successfully. Industrialised economies have a particular responsibility in that regard, as does international finance.

Cop28 may be over but Dr Al Jaber’s North Star remains a guiding principle – keeping global warming to below 1.5°C. The summit in Dubai was a significant and timely move in the right direction. With the right will in the right circumstances, all things are possible.