Our head-to-head lowdown on Champions League 2023/24 last-16 knockout battles
How far apart are the two clubs of Manchester? A modest six points in the Premier League table, where the defending champions, treble holders and Club World Cup favourites have been in patchy form. As for United, their recent scorelines cast a far gloomier diagnosis on where they’re at and FC Copenhagen 4, United 3 is a standout.
That result last month takes on fresh relevance now that the reward for the Danish club’s fine group phase is a last-16 tie against City. The win over United, coupled with their draws at Bayern Munich and at Galatasaray serve to advise City. These outsiders have big hearts. And look out for another episode of Haaland v Hojlund.
Erling will now face the younger brothers – Emil and Oscar – of United’s Rasmus.
Forecast: City to show champion class and progress.
Napoli v Barcelona
The “Maradona derby”, so called because these were the two biggest European clubs the late Diego Maradona played for. This reprise will be the second within four years, after the clubs met, with Barcelona victorious both times over two legs, in the Champions League in 2019/20 and two seasons later, in the Europa League play-offs.
For the first time, both will come into the collision as domestic champions, although neither are ending 2023 quite so elevated in their leagues. Napoli are fifth in Serie A and Barca are at risk today of slipping to fourth in La Liga.
Napoli’s planning for the tie will also be shaped by when and in what state of fatigue Nigerian striker Victor Osimhen and Cameroonian midfielder Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa return from the Africa Cup of Nations, which runs into mid-February.
Forecast: Barcelona to rediscover form and advance.
Porto v Arsenal
In the seven years since Arsenal last played a Champions League knockout game, Porto have got that far five times and twice made it into the last eight. Their iconic central defender, Pepe, is the epitome of the experience and toughness that is part of Porto’s make-up. Pepe, who won his first Champions League with Real Madrid a decade ago, turns 41 in between the two legs of the tie against Arsenal. How he and his colleagues cope with the 22-year-old whizz and invention of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli should have a key bearing on the outcome. Forecast: Arsenal to progress.
RB Leipzig v Real Madrid
Another trip to East Germany for the European Cup’s most decorated club, but a more taxing opponent than Union Berlin in the group stage. Not that Jude Bellingham and Madrid made easy work of Union, needing late goals
home and away to take six points. Leipzig, semi-finalists in 2019/20, will be encouraged that Madrid laboured a little in those matches, and by the ever-longer injury list at the Spanish club, with David Alaba the latest to join Eder Militao and keeper Thibaut Courtois. Forecast: Madrid impose their class, but by a fine margin.
Inter Milan v Atletico Madrid
Atletico coach Diego Simeone has taken the club higher than they could have dreamt when they appointed him 12 years ago. The itch he still needs to scratch, though, is a Champions League title, having lost two finals as Atletico boss. A meeting with last season’s finalists, Inter, presents a high hurdle.
Simeone is a former Inter player, too, and he knows they have a fine one in Simone Inzaghi, an expert in knockout ties. Forecast: Inter to find a way through Atletico.
PSG v Real Sociedad
The French league champions might be half tempted to regard a meeting with La Real as a blessing. Some of PSG’s possible alternatives, after they finished second in Group F and so were unseeded for the last 16, looked far more daunting on paper. But the well-run Basque club should at least match PSG for control of midfield and will note that, for all their wealth, Champions League-targeted ambition and Kylian Mbappe’s match-winning knack, PSG have in the last two seasons been knocked out at the last 16. Forecast: PSG to advance, thanks to individual brilliance.
Lazio v Bayern Munich
Former Chelsea managers Maurizio Sarri and Thomas Tuchel are two of the more studious to have passed through Stamford Bridge’s churn. Right now, Bayern’s Tuchel is the happier, with Lazio having plunged into the bottom half of Serie A. Bayern have had hiccups this season – out of the German Cup early, beaten 5-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga ten days ago – but where there is Harry Kane there is potency.
Forecast: Bayern to stride into the quarter-finals.
PSV Eindhoven v Borussia Dortmund
PSV bounced back well from an early hammering, 4-0 to Arsenal, in their group. To effectively eliminate Sevilla is feather in their cap. There is European nous in the squad, notably in Luuk de Jong and Hirving Lozano. Dortmund – who topped probably the hardest group, ahead of PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle United – represents an inviting away trip, at least. PSV manager Peter Bosz was in charge at Dortmund in 2017, an unhappy spell that lasted barely six months. A score to settle there, then.
Forecast: Dortmund to make the last eight.