UAE and Saudi Arabia will benefit Brics globally, experts say

The UAE and Saudi Arabia joining the Brics bloc is expected to boost the Arab world’s two largest economies, while also promoting the group’s influence globally, experts said.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia – along with Egypt, Iran and Ethiopia – joined Brics yesterday. This doubled the size of the group of major emerging economies, which was founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

“Expansion of the Brics bloc to include Saudi Arabia and UAE augurs extremely well amid ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges confronting the world economy,” said Ullas Rao, assistant professor of finance at Edinburgh Business School of HeriotWatt University in Dubai.

“Both Saudi and the UAE, as [among] the richest countries on per capita and home to the biggest sovereign wealth funds, create enormous growth opportunities through investments, trade and commerce.”

Gary Dugan, chief investment officer at Dalma Capital, said the image of Brics in the past was of a “financially vulnerable group, beholden to the global political superpowers”.

“The financial power of Saudi and the UAE as net exporters of capital to the rest of the world will substantially change that perception,” he said.

“Also, as a collective, we expect Saudi Arabia and the UAE to be afforded easier access to growth markets of Brics countries on favourable terms.”

The addition of two major oil exporters to the group “will reinforce their bargaining power and influence in Opec+ while also offering the space for them to align their strategies with other Brics members”, said Ehsan Khoman, head of ESG, commodities and emerging markets research at MUFG.

Opec+, which has played a crucial role in balancing oil markets, includes some of the world’s biggest crude producers – including the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Brics members China and India, the world’s second and third biggest oil consumers, have strong energy ties to the Gulf countries.

The expansion of the Brics bloc to include Saudi Arabia and the UAE is expected to offer new investment opportunities for the Arab world’s two largest economies while boosting the group’s influence globally, analysts said.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iran and Ethiopia joined Brics on January 1, doubling its membership to 10, with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa the original members.

Ullas Rao, assistant professor of finance at Edinburgh Business School of Heriot-Watt University in Dubai, said the move “augurs extremely well amid ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges confronting the world economy”.

“Both Saudi [Arabia] and the UAE – as [some of] the richest countries on per capita and home to the biggest sovereign wealth funds – create enormous growth opportunities through investments, trade and commerce,” he said.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have continued to post economic growth despite global uncertainty caused by high interest rates, inflation and geopolitical tension as they focus on diversifying their economies.

The Saudi economy, which expanded by 8.7 per cent in 2022, the highest annual growth rate among the world’s 20 biggest economies, was expected to expand by 0.8 per cent in 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The kingdom is also heavily focused on its non-oil economy as part of its Vision 2030 diversification agenda.

Meanwhile, the UAE’s economic growth for 2023 was forecast at 3.4 per cent, with oil GDP growth projected at 0.7 per cent and non-oil GDP at 4.5 per cent, backed by a strong performance in tourism, real estate, construction, transport, manufacturing and a surge in capital expenditure, according to a recent report from the World Bank.

The Arab world’s second-largest economy is signing trade deals to strengthen its ties with countries around the world. It is also working on 26 comprehensive economic partnership agreements as it seeks to attract more investment and diversify its economy.

Gary Dugan, chief investment officer at Dalma Capital, said the image of Brics in the past was of a financially vulnerable group beholden to the global political superpowers.

“The financial power of Saudi [Arabia] and the UAE as net exporters of capital to the rest of the world will substantially change that perception,” Mr Dugan said. “Also as a collective, we expect Saudi Arabia and the UAE to be afforded easier access to the growth markets of the Brics countries on favourable terms.”

Ehsan Khoman, head of ESG, commodities and emerging markets research at MUFG, said the addition of two major oil exporters to the group would “reinforce their bargaining power and influence in Opec+ while also offering the space for them to align their strategies with other Brics members”.

Opec+, which has been playing a crucial role in balancing oil markets, includes some of the world’s biggest crude producers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia. China and India are the second and third-biggest consumers of oil in the world, with strong energy ties to the Gulf countries.

Meanwhile, calls for the overhaul of the international monetary system and the development of an alternative currency to the US dollar are expected to grow as Brics expands, said Mr Rao.

“As the world navigates for an alternative to the US dollar, even if less relevant today, the emergence of Brics common currency can act as a major harbinger in diversifying risks away from the stronghold of the dollar,” he said.

Brics is set to assume greater influence as a powerful voice to the Global South, he said.

Ayham Kamel, head of the Mena unit at the Eurasia Group, is also bullish about the bloc wielding more influence.

“The prospect of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran and Egypt joining Brics creates new mechanisms that forces a degree of political co-operation by all the countries,” he said.

“The Arab countries are looking for improving their global geopolitical influence and appear committed to avoiding detachment from the West.”

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to create enormous opportunities through investments and trade