Houthi attacks risk reversal of great progress

Yemen’s warring parties have taken major steps forward, and the world must preserve them

In the past two months, the Houthi rebels have seized a cargo ship, attacked several other commercial vessels and fired missiles hundreds of kilometres from their base in western Yemen. In the nine years since the group mounted a violent takeover of the Yemeni capital, it has carried out more than 1,000 attacks against infrastructure important to the global economy, such as oil facilities and airports. The Houthis control less than half of Yemen’s territory, but their aggression leaves an outsized footprint on the world stage.

The latest instance occurred in the Red Sea early on Sunday morning, when Houthi militants mounted an attack against a container vessel. They were repelled by two US naval helicopters.

Later, UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said his government would not hesitate to take “direct action” – widely interpreted to mean London is considering air strikes on Yemeni soil.

The Houthis claim their attacks are helping to defend innocent Palestinians against Israel, which undertook a deadly ground campaign in Gaza in October. Given they have not only failed to move the dial in favour of Palestinians, but have in fact added to the number of innocent civilians in the region put at risk, the claim is at best dangerously naive and at worst threatening a regional war. If the militants’ actions draw western powers into a new battlefront, ongoing peace talks in Yemen could unravel, injecting deep uncertainty into the country’s future – risking even the Houthis’ own position.

The failure of the international community to end the onslaught in Gaza, largely due to full American support of Israel’s tactics, has only emboldened them further. And while the Houthis’ own tactics may often appear senseless, these are not rebels without a cause. Seizing control of Yemen is only part of the picture; the group’s objectives are expansive and pernicious. As a core member of the Iran-led “axis of resistance” that aims to remake the Middle East in a more extremist image, the Houthis are part of a transnational agenda.

Diplomatic efforts over the past two years to bring an end to Yemen’s conflict and establish an inclusive government were aimed, in part, at containing the influence of that agenda on the Arabian Peninsula and, eventually, releasing Yemen from its grip entirely so that all Yemenis – including those living in the Houthis’ strongholds – could prosper. Hans Grundberg, the UN’s Yemen envoy, spent much of last year shuttling between warring parties to forge an agreement. On December 23, he announced the rebels and the Yemeni government had committed to steps towards a ceasefire.

A conflagration in the Red Sea that raises shipping costs to Yemeni ports, brings western sanctions or reignites an international conflict would pull Yemenis back into their most desperate days. By gambling with their fellow citizens’ lives, the Houthis are gravely miscalculating. The challenge for the rest of the world is to respond strongly enough to show them this while avoiding its own miscalculations, too.