Iran blasts add to instability in the Middle East

With several conflicts afflicting the region, de-escalation is an urgent priority

The Jabalieh Dome, a magnificent stone rotunda of ancient provenance, has long drawn visitors to the south-eastern Iranian city of Kerman. However, since 2020, when prolific Iranian general Qassem Suleimani was buried a kilometre away, it has become a side attraction. Suleimani, who was the most powerful figure in Iran’s security apparatus, is so highly regarded that his burial site attracts thousands of mourners each year.

Now, the stretch of road between Suleimani’s tomb and the dome will be known for the tragedy that took place on Wednesday, the fourth anniversary of his death, when twin explosions killed about 100 people, many of them visiting mourners. It was the deadliest terrorist attack on Iran since the country’s 1979 revolution.

When Suleimani was killed by a US drone strike in Baghdad, it seemed as though the Middle East stood still. Everyone feared that the slightest counter could set the region ablaze. That almost happened days afterwards, when an Iranian missile operator erroneously downed a commercial aircraft, killing 176 people.

In the end, no new war broke out after the killing of Suleimani as cooler heads prevailed. The hope is that a similar outcome awaits the region. The blasts in Kerman happened amid a particularly volatile time. Israel’s horrific invasion of Gaza, sparked by a brutal attack carried out by Hamas on October 7, has claimed 22,000 Palestinian lives. A day before the attack in Kerman, what appeared to be an Israeli drone strike in the Lebanese capital killed Saleh Al Arouri, a Hamas official close to the Iranian government.

It is unsurprising many in Iran have pointed the finger for Wednesday’s bombings at Israel. The Israeli government’s killing of Mr Al Arouri did it no favours; it signalled the country’s willingness to expand its war deep into other countries.

Nonetheless, there are other potential culprits. Chief among them, based on capability and modus operandi, is ISKP, the branch of ISIS based in neighbouring Afghanistan. ISIS last night claimed responsibility for the bombing.

If that is the case, it will be a reminder that instability is spreading as much in the region’s eastern deserts as it is on its Mediterranean shore. The international community’s failure to engage constructively with Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers has given opportunity to groups such as ISIS, and brought greater volatility to the Afghan-Iranian border area. The Taliban and Iran have occasionally found areas of mutual interest (fighting ISKP may be one of them now), but their history is coloured more by violence than co-operation.

Taking the Middle East from to a calmer place is not a matter of rolling back the clock. The enormous damage done in the past three months cannot be undone.

Even so, regional governments and the international community should not fan any flames. A US drone strike on Iranbacked militias in Baghdad on Thursday indicates this will be difficult. But efforts at methodical diplomacy and de-escalation are worth making. A durable solution in at least one of these many conflicts plaguing the region can encourage more of the same in others.