MOSCOW’S MISSILES DESTROY HOPES FOR PEACE PUSH
▶ UAE-brokered prisoner swap was seen as sign of progress, but Russia is planning for long war, writes Thomas Harding
The biggest swap of prisoners in the Ukraine conflict has come with an apparent shift in Russia’s focus as it launched a missile bombardment against defence factories.
Moscow’s massive increase in aerial attacks – firing more than 500 missiles and drones in the past week, killing 39 civilians – appears designed to expose new cracks in Ukraine’s fight for survival.
Russia also appears to have changed tactics by concentrating on Ukraine’s defence manufacturing sites rather than its previous winter campaign against the country’s energy infrastructure.
The release of 230 Ukrainian prisoners and 248 Russians in a deal brokered by the UAE suggested the possibility of diplomacy in the almost twoyear conflict.
If Moscow is probing for direction as the anniversary approaches, last week provided evidence of its carrot and stick approach.
Ukraine’s upgraded air defence system has been under pressure and was unable to block the initial wave of 156 projectiles. In subsequent attacks, it has held firm.
Much now depends on the West bolstering Ukraine’s defences and Russia’s ability to manufacture enough missiles while also relying on North Korea and Iran.
There had been hopes that the first prisoner swap since August last Wednesday could open a path to de-escalation.
The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the move had come about due to the “strong, friendly relations” between the Emirates and both Russia and Ukraine, “supported by sustained calls at the highest levels”.
Some of the Ukrainian prisoners had been held for almost two years after being taken captive from Snake Island on the Black Sea and during the siege of Mariupol.
Analysts have suggested that the exchange at least indicates that the sides were willing to talk.
“While the PoW exchange is notable and underscores that both sides are willing to engage in low-level negotiations, we do not assess that it is an indicator that peace talks are likely in the coming months,” said Alex Lord, a senior analyst at Sibylline intelligence company.
Russia’s blitz of Ukraine was expected after it hoarded missiles for several months.
On December 29, Russia launched its biggest round of strikes, with 36 Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones and 120 missiles.
An estimated 41 weapons got through Ukraine’s defences, killing 39 people and striking military and industrial hubs in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia. A security assessment by Sibylline, seen by The National, stated that Ukraine’s air defences “failed to intercept any ballistic missiles”, including Kinzhal hypersonic weapons.
This indicated that Russia had “increased the lethality of its swarming attacks” with the objective of undermining Ukraine’s “military self-sufficiency”. Russia launched further assaults but Ukraine’s defences managed to intercept nearly all the projectiles.
“The Ukrainians are rapidly learning how to deal with these attacks,” said Mr Lord.
“The Ukrainian air defence network has improved remarkably compared to this time last year especially with the provision of western-supplied Patriot missiles.”
While Russia’s boosted defence manufacturers can produce an estimated 100 cruise and ballistic missiles a month, it will need imports from abroad to continue the high tempo of attack.
Moscow is intensifying its purchase of Iranian ballistic weapons and US officials have said it could also obtain shortrange missiles from Tehran this spring.
North Korea is also said to be supplying a significant number of missiles on top of one million rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition, reportedly in return for Russian fighters and tanks.
If Russia can keep up the tempo of attacks, it will put significant pressure on Ukraine’s defences, potentially exhausting its stockpiles.
Europe, led by Germany and Britain, is committing additional air defence systems, although there are “serious questions around the longevity of the West’s support to Ukraine”, said Mr Lord.
Ukraine expert Orysia Lutsevych of the Chatham House think tank said that Moscow was attempting to prove that the West does not have the resources to continue fighting.
“If western assistance decreases, the Russians will take more territory,” Ms Lutsevych said.
“They have more material and people but that’s not going to break the will of Ukraine to continue defending its territory.”
Mr Lord added that current western sanctions had not “significantly curtailed Russia’s ability to ramp up its own military production”, making closing loopholes a priority this year.
But increasing air defences was only creating a “punchbag” for Russia and instead the West should dissuade the attacks by other means, said Keir Giles, a Russia military expert also from Chatham House.
“The West should think how it can influence Russia’s incentives to carry on these attacks but this discussion has been completely invisible,” he said.
“It is possible to explain to Russia that there will be negative impacts, for instance, the seizure of Russian financial assets overseas, which is an obvious connection and that ought to be made public.”
The billions of Russian Central Bank assets frozen in 2022 should be used to pay for the damage caused by the Russian state, he suggested. That threat might make Moscow reconsider its strikes, he said.
Dr Sidarth Kaushal of the Rusi think tank said that with temperatures dropping to minus 14°C in Kyiv, partly from the fallout from Storm Henk, the Russians chose January as the coldest month to attack.
Ukraine’s air defences have become much more robust, he added, particularly with the US provision of the Integrated Battle Command System operation centre, which gives a clear battlefield picture.
This allows Ukraine to shepherd its Patriot missiles, using other defences to shoot down the Shahed drones. Russia’s “pummelling” of Ukraine last winter did not “put a dent in Ukraine’s resilience to continue fighting”, said Mr Giles.
“For Ukraine, there’s nowhere else to go,” he said. “Surrender is not an option, because they have seen what happens to those individuals or those parts of the country subjected to daily terror by Russia. So they will fight on.”
Ms Lutsevych, who is Ukrainian-born, said that her compatriots’ morale remained undiminished.
“Although Ukraine is wounded and bitter, there’s still determination to fight on because there’s no alternative,” she said.
From a military perspective, mass civilian bombardment “does not win wars”, said Dr Kaushal. The emerging Russian tactic suggested that it was preparing for a long, attritional war by degrading Ukraine’s military industrial base.
“I don’t think it will be strategically decisive, but it will impose significant military dilemmas on Ukraine,” said Dr Kaushal.
On December 29, Russia launched its biggest round of strikes, with 36 Iranian-made Shahed drones and 120 missiles