Iraq considers risks and rewards of expelling US troops
▶ Relations strained between Baghdad and Washington as Al Sudani vows to remove international coalition
Iraq’s government is facing mounting pressure to expel US forces from its territory, amid heightened tensions across the region, but the decision comes with considerable risk.
Washington maintains troops in Iraq under the US-led International Coalition against ISIS. Their presence is opposed by various Iran-backed Shiite political parties and militias, which are highly influential in Iraq.
Since the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war, clashes between US forces and the Iran-backed militias have intensified.
Under pressure from pro-Tehran political parties and militias, Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani has pledged to end the presence of the US-led coalition, which was formed in 2014 to fight ISIS.
Mr Al Sudani has repeatedly condemned the “violation of Iraqi sovereignty” as the US hits Iran-backed militias with air strikes in retaliation for rocket attacks launched against its troops.
“Government is setting the date for the start of the bilateral committee to put arrangements in place to end the presence of the international coalition forces in Iraq permanently,” the Prime Minister’s office said on Friday. However, the push to expel US forces has raised concerns about the security, economic, and political implications of the move.
“In light of the challenges the State of Iraq faces, mainly in security, I think this is not realistic,” political analyst Ihsan Al Shammari, who leads the Iraqi Political Thinking Centre think tank in Baghdad, told The National.
Mr Al Sudani’s statement “is a response to the mounting pressures” by the Co-ordination Framework, the biggest parliamentary bloc that includes representatives for militias, Mr Al Shammari said.
“The PM is fully aware that the coalition withdrawal or even the engagement in negotiations could lead to political, security and economic consequences,” he added.
A senior military official told The National that Iraq’s security forces still needed US support.
“This issue can’t be done quickly and it’s not a matter of a desire of this party or that, but needs first thorough discussion internally to reach a decision on what form of co-operation we need,” he said. “We all agree that ISIS is gone and not capable as it was in 2014, but its remnants and ideology are still there,” he added. “The security forces need the support from the US forces mainly in intelligence sharing. For the military institution, the presence of the coalition is vital in training, advisory, arming and guiding in some operations against ISIS remnants, mainly the air strikes.
“In our opinion, if we need to go with such plans, we need a gradual disengagement for at least three years to prepare ourselves.”
He warned that a “sudden departure could disrupt the continuing efforts to strengthen Iraqi military”.
US troops have been stationed in Iraq since 2003, when an American-led international coalition invaded Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein’s regime, claiming he was developing and stockpiling weapons of mass destruction. No such weapons were found and the invasion plunged Iraq into chaos.
The US withdrew from Iraq in 2011, leaving behind a small number of troops to protect its embassy and to train and assist Iraqi forces. At its peak in 2007, the US military presence included 170,000 soldiers.
Foreign troops returned in 2014, when ISIS seized about a third of the country as the UStrained Iraqi security forces melted away. After the defeat of ISIS in Iraq by the end of 2017, the US started to reduce the number of its troops – from about 5,000 to 2,500 – along with other countries from the international coalition.
Despite pressure to withdraw US forces since the defeat of ISIS, the Pentagon said on Monday that it had no plans to do so.
“Right now, I’m not aware of any plans,” Maj Gen Patrick Ryder told a news briefing in
Washington. “We continue to remain very focused on the defeat ISIS mission.”
Maj Gen Ryder said he was unaware of any notification by Baghdad to the Department of Defence about a decision to remove US troops.
Iran-backed Shiite militias and Tehran have called for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq since 2017.
These calls intensified after the US killed Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and a prominent Iraqi militia leader, Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, in an air strike in Baghdad in 2020.
Two days after the assassination, Shiites in Iraq’s parliament passed a resolution calling on the government to expel foreign troops. Sunnis and Kurds have not supported the move.
The coalition withdrawal or engagement in negotiations could lead to political, security and economic consequences
IHSAN AL SHAMMARI
Political analyst