US-led Red Sea task force faces dilemma over whether to unleash full power against rebels

The might of the US-led Red Sea task force is formidable yet commanders are faced with a dilemma on how it can be effectively used to end the Houthi shipping attacks.

Western leaders are clearly hesitant over what to do next.

Any strike in an Arab country could well provoke the escalation that they have been trying to avoid since the Israel-Gaza conflict began.

But the Houthis have risen to international prominence with their missile and drone attacks hindering Red Sea shipping and “now very much have a taste for it”, said former Royal Navy commander Tom Sharpe.

Military experts spoke to The National on what a possible USled strike package might look like. There is the “one in, one out” option in which for every Houthi attack there is a similarly scaled response, they said.

The greatest opportunity for that came on Tuesday night when 21 drones attacked British and American warships. While all were shot down there was no further response. That still remains an option, as does the “full spectrum” assault in which the US and UK unleash the full might of their power.

Military analysts agree that the Tomahawk cruise missile will probably be the first weapon to enter Yemen airspace.

With the ability to change objective mid-flight, or even to track a moving target the Tomahawk offers the highest rewards for the lowest risk.

With a 450kg warhead and range of 900km it can be fired from a distance although it costs $2 million per warhead.

But America does have lots of them. Every warship either patrolling against Houthi attacks or protecting a US aircraft carrier, including a submarine, is Tomahawk-equipped.

It is also possible that Britain might have secretly sent one of its Tomahawk-equipped Astute-class submarines, which would have the range to strike Yemen, to the Mediterranean.

The Americans are anxious that they are not the sole attacker and US officers regard Britain’s smaller contributions as vital “validation” to Washington’s actions. Hence it is probable that the RAF will send a handful of its Typhoon fighter bombers on the 2,500km flight from their airbase in Cyprus.

The jets will probably be equipped with the Storm Shadow cruise missiles that have proven so effective in Ukraine.

While the two British warships in the Red Sea do not have any offensive capabilities, they do have Wildcat helicopters equipped with the lightweight Martlet missiles that can sink Houthi fast boats or fishing vessels whose radar is being used for ship tracking.

America has the most potent air power in the world, with more than 40 FA-18 Hornets alone stationed on the USS Dwight D Eisenhower, currently in the Red Sea.

The battle-hardened Hornets can carry an array of weaponry that would be used if the US opted to level Houthi defences.

“This almost seems like overkill but I also feel like the Houthis are enjoying the international attention that they’ve gained as arguably the most active member of the axis of resistance supporting the Palestinians,” said Jeremy Binnie, an expert from Janes, the defence intelligence company.

“But what can actually dissuade them from continuing to do these attacks? The US would rather not be at this juncture right now, when there’s escalatory tension.”

The Houthi air defence arsenal itself does not lack its own teeth, shooting down a US Reaper drone before Christmas, and it has been bolstered by Iran-supplied missiles.

“The hope is that an attack deters the Houthis from doing anything in the future rather than sparking another round of retaliation, but where that balance lies is going to be incredibly difficult to find,” said Mr Binnie.

Mr Sharpe agreed is was a “conundrum” over whether to simply opt for low level counterstrikes or “go in with all guns blazing and obliterate as much as you can”.

There is the ‘one in, one out’ option in which for every Houthi attack there is a similarly scaled response