Artificial intelligence to affect about one in four jobs globally, IMF says

Artificial intelligence will affect about 40 per cent of jobs globally, with advanced economies facing greater risks and opportunities from its use, the International Monetary Fund has said.

About half of these jobs may be negatively affected by AI while the rest could benefit from enhanced productivity due to its integration, the fund said in a blog post.

The technology could affect about six in 10 jobs in advanced economies, with roughly half of these roles expected to record a positive impact, the study said.

Meanwhile, 40 per cent of jobs in emerging markets and 26 per cent of roles in poor countries will be exposed to the effects of AI.

While they may experience less immediate AI-related disruptions, they are also less prepared to seize the technology’s advantages, which could worsen the digital divide and cross-country income disparity, the fund said.

“In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality, a troubling trend that policymakers must proactively address to prevent the technology from further stoking social tensions,” said IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

“It is crucial for countries to establish comprehensive social safety nets and offer retraining programmes for vulnerable workers,” she said.

Companies and governments have been investing heavily in the technology, raising some concerns among workers about the future of work and the security of their jobs.

AI could also affect income and wealth inequality within countries, the IMF said. The extent of income inequality will mainly depend on how much the technology complements high earners, the fund said.

AI can help less experienced employees enhance their productivity more quickly, while younger workers may find it easier to exploit opportunities and older workers may struggle to adapt, it said.

Women and college graduates are more exposed but also better poised to reap the benefits of AI, the analysis showed.

If AI significantly complements higher-income workers, it may lead to a disproportionate increase in their pay. Gains in productivity from companies that adopt AI could boost capital returns, which may also favour high earners, it said.

“Both of these phenomena could exacerbate inequality,” Ms Georgieva said.