Gaza’s ripple effect is spreading
▶ From the Red Sea to Pakistan, drone and missile strikes reveal a growing number of flashpoints
Almost 2,300 kilometres separate Gaza and Yemen; this distance shows the extent to which the atmosphere of anarchy unleashed on October 7 has spread across the Middle East and beyond. This week, the US, already the subject of scrutiny over the diplomatic and military cover it is giving its Israeli allies, attempted to reassert its authority – by returning the Iran-aligned Houthi movement to its list of international terrorist organisations.
The Houthis’ removal from the list after US President Joe Biden took office in 2021 seems to have done little to deter the rebels from carrying out drone and missile attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. This is ostensibly being done as part of their role in the “axis of resistance” to Israel, but also has the effect of forcing the international community to engage with their agenda as well as drowning out critics who have highlighted the militants’ patchy record of delivery for the millions of Yemenis who live under their rule.
Washington’s decision to remove the Houthis’ terrorist designation may have been to support the peace process in Yemen, but it was also a miscalculation. By performing this week’s about-face, the US has recognised the threat posed by the group, but it also suggests a lack of direction at the highest levels of American political and military decision making.
This is far from reassuring given that it comes as the ripple effect started on October 7 now resembles a dangerous regional free-for-all. On Thursday, Iranian media said the south-eastern city of Saravan was struck by missiles and drones launched from nearby Pakistan. Islamabad said these were “highly-co-ordinated and specifically targeted” strikes against “terrorist hideouts” in Sistan and Baluchestan.
They followed Iranian strikes on Pakistan’s Balochistan province on Tuesday night, with Iranian outlets reporting that the attacks were aimed at Jaish Al Adl, a Baluch militant group. These are not the only cross-border strikes carried out by Iran this week. On Monday, targets in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan region, were hit, as were suspected ISIS militants in Syria.
Since its foundation in 1979, the Iranian regime has been embroiled in direct or indirect armed conflict with all of its neighbours – except Armenia and Russia. It has also tussled for political, military and economic dominance with most of its neighbours. The antagonism that characterises many of Tehran’s interactions is a worrying constant in the region.
The instability that began with Gaza is affecting states that already have significant problems. Iran is also recovering from the recent Kerman bombings that claimed nearly 100 lives. The escalation with Pakistan is particularly worrying – the two neighbours are not antagonists and have co-operated on intelligence sharing in the past.
An immediate halt to the catastrophic Gaza war as well as clear and responsible decision making is required. Too many flashpoints are developing – in Lebanon, Iraq, the Red Sea and now in South Asia. The stakes are higher than ever and the longer the war in Gaza continues, the bigger the chance of greater escalation.