Opec expects growth in oil demand to decline in 2025

Opec has forecast a decline in crude oil demand growth next year but said fuel consumption would be driven by solid economic activity in China.

Global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day next year, down from Opec’s estimate for this year of 2.2 million bpd, the group said.

Opec typically releases its estimates for the coming year in the second half of the current year. It released the outlook for 2024 in November.

“Bringing forward the publication of the 2025 forecast … is part of the continued commitment of the Opec organisation to offer more transparency and support for both consumers and producers,” the group said.

“The undertaking to reach beyond the previously established time horizon of shortterm forecasting serves to support the understanding of market dynamics and to support the continued commitment of [Opec+].”

The group expects nonOpec supply to expand by 1.3 million bpd in 2025, in line with its estimate for this year.

This year, the demand for Opec crude is expected to be 28.5 million bpd, surpassing the 2023 estimated level by 800,000 bpd. Opec crude consumption is projected to reach 29 million bpd in 2025, the group said.

Meanwhile, Opec’s oil production, excluding Angola’s output, increased by 73,000 bpd in December from the preceding month to average 26.7 million bpd, Opec said.

Angola, Africa’s second-largest oil producer, last month quit Opec after a dispute over production quotas. The country has a production of about 1.1 million bpd.

Opec also said it expected the global economy to expand by 2.8 per cent next year, up from this year’s estimated growth of 2.6 per cent.