US forces expected to strike Iraqi militias after ‘huge escalation’

Iran-backed groups have increased efforts to kill US personnel in Iraq, with missiles fired at Ain Al Asad airbase.

The attack is the largest by Iran-backed militias against US forces yet.

“It is a huge escalation, involving perhaps 15 to 20 missiles,” said Joel Wing, a California-based analyst who has been tracking violence in Iraq for 16 years.

“It seems like things are spiralling. There’s no way they’re firing ballistic missiles and not expecting casualties.”

Mr Wing told The National the US will almost certainly be drawn into a lethal response, if only to deter attacks.

One option for the US could be to try to kill a militia commander.

Many militias backed by Tehran operate in Iraq, most under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilisation Forces.

They have stepped up their attacks on US forces in the country since the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war and a related rise in regional tensions involving Iran and its proxy groups and the US and Israel.

Escalation is part of the militias’ campaign to pressure the US to leave Iraq. There are about 2,500 American military trainers in the country under the International Coalition against ISIS.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, who relies on Iran-backed militias and parties for support, has criticised militias for attacking coalition troops on Iraqi territory. But his calls for US forces to leave the country as the conflict escalates have grown louder.

Mr Al Sudani has condemned US counter strikes against the militias as a “violation of sovereignty”.

The drones used by the militias, such as the Iran-made Shahed-136, carry up to 50kg of explosives, compared to missiles – used in Saturday’s attack – that can carry several hundred kilograms.

The US said Patriot missile interceptors shot down a number of the missiles in yesterday’s attack, which also involved rockets flying at lower altitudes.

Iran has supplied the PMF militias with missiles smuggled from Iran, part of an effort to transfer the weapons to Syria.

In November, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which encompasses Kataib Hezbollah and a smaller group, Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba, released an image of what it claimed was a new missile, Al Aqsa.

According to Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iranian weapons, the missile was likely to have been based on Iranian designs with a range of up to 250km.

Iran is also thought to have transferred Fateh 110 missiles, each with a range of up to 500km, to the militias.

This month, Kataib Hezbollah said it had carried out missile attacks on US forces and said those would expand “under the banner of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq”.

The group previously ran the missiles directorate within the PMF, placing it in charge of missile technology.

In November, a US AC-130J gunship killed two members of Kataib Hezbollah near Baghdad, with the US saying the group was moving missiles launchers after an attack.

Iran has been transferring missiles to Iraq since 2017, with many of the weapons believed to be stored in Jurf Al Sakhar, a rural town emptied of civilians during a battle with ISIS in 2014. It has since been taken over by Kataib Hezbollah.

The US bombed Kataib Hezbollah again in December in Jurf Al Sakhar and Anbar, after another attack that wounded its soldiers in Erbil.

The bitter rivalry between US forces and Kataib Hezbollah goes back to the US occupation of Iraq, when the militia killed and wounded hundreds of US soldiers.

The worst Kataib Hezbollah attacks came in 2011 when the group killed 14 American troops over several weeks that summer.

At the time, it was led by former Iraqi MP Jamal Jaafar Ibrahimi, better known as Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, who was killed in a US drone strike, alongside Iranian Maj Gen Qassem Suleimani, in early 2020.

That attack, which followed deadly rocket strikes on US forces the previous week, led to Iran’s missile bombardment at Al Asad – underlining how quickly the US-militia conflict can escalate.

“Gaza is just total hell and Israel is not going to stop,” Mr Wing said. “Plus, the aftermath is probably a long military occupation of Gaza and more resistance. The pressure for Iran to ‘do something’ is incredible and they can’t seem to hold back.”

Mark Pyrus, a historian and Iran expert, agreed.

“Iran’s strategy is multitheatre, as a response to the current Israel-Gaza campaign that includes Israeli and American operational engagement,” he said. “Expectation is a forthcoming American counterstrike.”

Analysts say that Iran’s strategy of attacking US forces in the region will eventually prompt a military response