US-LED STRIKES ON HOUTHIS MAY PROMPT ‘MISGIVINGS’ IN IRAN
Aerial campaign unlikely to deter Yemeni rebels from attacks on shipping but could prove uncomfortable for Tehran, says former British envoy
Houthi attacks on international shipping have seen Iran ride an “uncomfortable wave” that the US is trying to contain, a former British envoy to Yemen has told The National.
After a second wave of joint US and British attacks on Houthi sites in Yemen on Monday night, Edmund Fitton-Brown also warned that “miscalculation” could lead to war between Tehran and Washington.
“One thing is absolutely clear – the Houthi attacks won’t stop. But the strategic objective is to give shipping confidence that it can safely pass through the Red Sea,” he said. “This operation will be judged on whether that confidence is re-established or not.”
The US and Britain struck eight Houthi military sites in Yemen on Monday, including arms warehouses and an airfield, in the latest attempt to stop the Tehran-backed rebel group’s attacks on Red Sea shipping.
A senior US military official said the strikes “removed significant Houthi capability” while being designed to avoid civilian casualties.
But Mr Fitton-Brown, who served as ambassador to Yemen from 2015 to 2017, warned that the escalating strikes were unlikely to have a substantial impact on Houthi shipping attacks.
“If we want to deter the Houthis, that’s not easy, as they’re not a very deterrable group,” he said. “Their view is ‘you can’t ignore us, we can make your life difficult, if the world forgets about us we won’t let it’.”
The Houthis are “essentially thugs” and have no real ideology other than “hatred of the West and Israel alongside a vicious brand of religious extremism”, he added.
However, he argued that the group may realise that they have “bumped up against red lines”, and might reduce the intensity of their attacks – particularly if Iran has “misgivings”.
While Iran has supplied the Houthis with arms and training, he said, it still does not have full control over the group.
“It’s a curious dynamic between the Houthis and the Iranians. It’s definitely not Tehran issuing instructions and the Houthis carrying them out.
“It’s more the Houthis doing what they want to do and receiving Iranian assistance. So Iran is riding a slightly uncomfortable wave,” Mr Fitton-Brown said, adding that the Iranians “don’t necessarily want an escalation with the US”.
“The Iranians are quite good
at reading clear signals, and if they wanted to escalate, I would expect to see a significant change in the tempo of Hezbollah attacks into northern Israel,” he said.
However, the Behshad, an Iranian spy ship believed to monitor movements in the southern Red Sea, may become a flashpoint between the countries. The vessel departed the area when the US and Britain launched their first strikes on January 11.
“There is the potential for the Behshad to get caught up in the US response if it’s actively directing attacks that the US is trying to prevent. Then it will become a target,” said Mr Fitton-Brown, now a senior adviser at the Counter Extremism Project.
“Washington or London will
be saying to the Iranians: ‘This ship has put itself in the role of being a combatant against our forces, you might want to think about that.’”
Because the American and British response has “been so meticulously proportionate”, he said, it is clear that the western powers are “sending the message, not just to the Houthis, but to the Iranians” that the attacks on shipping “will not be tolerated”.
But Tehran could also escalate the crisis, such as if its proxy militias in Iraq increase the intensity of their attacks on US troops in the country, which have become a regular occurrence since the Israel-Gaza war began.
“That escalation would be very dangerous,” said Mr Fitton-Brown.
The Behshad, an Iranian spy ship believed to monitor Red Sea traffic, may become a flashpoint between Iran and the US