US PUTS FAITH IN AUTHORITY PALESTINIANS REFUSE TO TRUST
▶ Analysts say Biden administration needs to do more than polish up political solution that has not worked
The “day after” in Gaza should include a path to an independent state run by one governing body – a reformed Palestinian Authority – in the West Bank and the coastal enclave, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently said.
Before October 7, an independent Palestinian state on territory Israel occupied in 1967 was not high on President Joe Biden’s foreign policy agenda.
Since taking office, Mr Biden, who is running for re-election, has been more focused on the war in Ukraine, China policy and integrating Israel into the region through agreements with its Arab neighbours.
Now, the Biden administration is hoping Mahmoud Abbas – the leader of the Palestinian Authority – will agree to reform the government so that it can administer the West Bank as well as the Gaza Strip after the conflict ends.
At Davos during the World Economic Forum this month, Mr Blinken said a reformed Palestinian Authority would need to operate as a government that delivers on the aspirations of the Palestinian people and it would require Israel’s support.
“Even the most effective authority is going to have a lot of trouble if it’s got the active opposition of any Israeli government.” The proposal is certainly rife with challenges, analysts said, as in addition to Israel’s refusal to get on board with the proposal, the Palestinian Authority has lost legitimacy and popularity among Palestinians in three decades of failed US-sponsored peace efforts to deliver a state of their own.
US officials said that the Palestinian Authority needs to be “revitalised and revamped”, which would include combating corruption, empowering civil society and supporting press freedom, among other reforms.
“I don’t think the Biden administration right now has a clear concept of what revamping the Palestinian Authority means,” Ghaith Al Omari, an adviser to the Palestinian negotiating team from 19992006, told The National.
“The Palestinian Authority is neither capable, nor is it desirable.” Meanwhile, the far right-wing Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said war will continue until Hamas is eradicated and the hostages are freed.
Mr Netanyahu said that he continues to “strongly” oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state, as it would pose “an existential threat” to the state of Israel – putting him at odds with the Biden administration.
Two ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, opponents of the two-state solution, could vote to dissolve Mr Netanyahu’s coalition government if he took steps towards the creation of a Palestinian state, analysts said.
Other proposals for postwar Gaza have included Israel’s reoccupation of the enclave – against US policy – and the creation of a multinational coalition to administer civilian affairs and oversee reconstruction of the territory, something no nation has so far agreed to.
“The US insisting or supporting the Palestinian Authority taking control over Gaza on the day after is, in many ways, a default solution because if you look at the options, they are very limited,” Mohammed Abu Nimer, professor at the American University in Washington and an expert in conflict resolution, told The National.
“They’re looking for an entity that can save the situation for the international community, and the leading candidate is the Palestinian Authority. The question that remains, what would be the role of Hamas?”
A poll conducted in December by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research found that only 7 per cent of Palestinians support a national unity government, which would include Hamas’s participation, under Mr Abbas after the war ends. Ninety per cent want Mr Abbas to resign.
Mr Abbas, 88, has been President for 18 years and has shown little sign that he is willing to step aside.
Established in 1993 as part of the Oslo Accords, the Palestinian Authority, from its base in Ramallah, administers civilian affairs and co-ordinates Israel’s security. Officials are deeply unpopular among average Palestinians who view them as corrupt collaborators.
“For us, the authority is at its worst a security contractor, and at best a municipality,” said Wafa Abdel Rahman, head of a feminist organisation in Ramallah.
“And this is supposed to change after the onslaught on Gaza? The expectation will be that the authority would continue to repress, arrest and perform its assigned role in the West Bank. And in Gaza, its role would be even worse.”
Safiye Quwar, a social worker who lives in Aida refugee camp in Bethlehem, said residents can usually tell when the Israeli army will conduct a raid that night and arrest young Palestinians, because starting that evening, Palestinian Authority police are out of sight.
“They’re not doing anything for us here in the West Bank, how are they going to do anything in Gaza?” Ms Quwar said. Meanwhile Hamas,
I don’t think the Biden administration right now has a clear concept of what revamping the PA means
GHAITH AL OMARI Palestinian adviser 1999-2006
which has been governing Gaza since 2007 after driving Palestinian Authority forces out of the enclave, has seen its popularity in the West Bank more than triple compared to three months prior, according to the PCPSR poll.
Arab and Gulf states said they are ready to support and invest in Gaza’s reconstruction after the war, but insist that it must include a pathway to a Palestinian state.
“There’s a huge gap between where the Americans and the Israelis are with regard to the broad outlines of what the day after looks like – nobody knows how that’s going to be overcome,” Khaled Elgindy, who was an adviser to the Palestinian leadership during negotiations from 2004 to 2009, told The National.
Mr Abbas wants to be relevant, he said.
“If he can reassert some relevance in Gaza, he could change his legacy.”
Still, observers said, after three decades of US-brokered peace initiatives failed to produce an independent Palestinian state and stability in the Middle East, Mr Abbas and the Palestinian Authority will remain hesitant to administer the territory after the Israelis pull out.
“Nobody wants to be viewed as though they’re coming into Gaza on the back of the Merkava, the Israeli tank,” said Dina Buttu, a lawyer and analyst who was a legal adviser to the Palestinian negotiating team from 2000 to 2005.
“They don’t want to be viewed as the security subcontractor again,” she said.
“They did it for 30 years now and it’s brought them nothing but grief.”