US UNDER PRESSURE TO ACT AFTER DEADLY DRONE STRIKE
▶ Biden considers options amid fears response to Jordan base attack could spark Iran conflict
The US is considering how best to respond to an Iran-linked drone attack that killed three American troops at an outpost in Jordan, as the risk of a broader clash with Tehran increases.
Iran and the US have publically declared their intention to avoid direct conflict, but the
Biden administration is under mounting pressure to increase attacks on Tehran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, and some Republicans in Congress have called for direct strikes.
“We are not looking for a war with Iran,” said White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby after Sunday’s attack on Tower 22, an outpost that provided billets for about 350 troops in the Iraq-Syria-Jordan border area. “We are not looking to escalate the conflict in the region.”
Thirty-four US personnel were injured, a Pentagon official told The National, and the number was expected to rise.
Many of those wounded were in living quarters at the time of the explosion.
The tower had been targeted twice before but those attacks were thwarted by air defence systems, the official said. The
Pentagon is investigating how the drone managed to elude those defences.
The Wall Street Journal claimed there was confusion over the drone’s identity.
Iran, through its UN mission, said it was not involved in the attack in north-eastern Jordan.
An official statement said Iran had “nothing to do with” it, but did not deny US accusations that militias allied to Tehran were to blame for the strike.
In London, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak urged Iran to reduce tensions.
“We are concerned and we would urge Iran to continue to de-escalate tensions in the region,” he said.
The drone attack has taken tensions caused by the war between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hamas to a new level. Since October 7, the
Pentagon has blamed Iranbacked militias for more than 150 attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria.
Further complicating the situation, Tehran-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen have fired dozens of missiles against merchant and military vessels in the Red Sea.
A pro-Iranian source in Beirut said the Israeli killings of Iranian military officials in Syria in the past two months have been a factor behind the escalation.
Another factor is Tehran’s desire to weaken Washington in negotiations with Iraq over the withdrawal of US forces.
The source cited the “intensity” of Houthi missile attacks in the Red Sea and use of more advanced missiles by Hezbollah in a border war of attrition with Israel as “good examples” of Iran’s intention to carefully widen the Gaza conflict.
“Regional escalation has been expected and prepared for,” the source said.
On Sunday, US President Joe Biden vowed that the nation “shall respond” to the attack in Jordan, a message repeated by US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin yesterday.
“Let me start with my outrage and sorrow [for] the deaths of three brave US troops in Jordan and for the other troops who were wounded,” Mr Austin said.
“The President and I will not tolerate attacks on US forces, and we will take all necessary actions to defend the US and our troops.”
The Republican response to the killings has been united in condemning the Biden administration, but disjointed on exactly why.
Donald Trump, the former president and presumptive Republican nominee in the 2024 presidential election, called the “brazen attack on the United States” by Iranian-linked forces “another horrific and tragic consequence of Joe Biden’s weakness and surrender”.
Republican senator Lindsey Graham called on the US to “strike targets of significance inside Iran” and to “hit them hard”.
Sunday’s drone attack also highlighted America’s lingering presence in the region six years after the near-total defeat of ISIS.
The base was one of several established to counter ISIS from six sites across Syria and one in Jordan. These are distinct from those in Iraq, such as the vast Ain Al Asad Airbase, which hosts thousands of Iraqi troops and some Nato advisers.
By comparison, Tower 22, which supported a nearby outpost in Syria, was vulnerable.
Bases like it were set up after 2015 when small contingents of US special operations forces entered Syria, linking up with Kurdish militias who were fighting ISIS at the time.
Tower 22 has been described as a support base for the nearby US Al Tanf garrison and exists in a “deconfliction zone” in the Iraq-Syria-Jordan tri-border area, established in a 2016 agreement between the US and Russia.
The attack calls into question whether America’s decades-long standoff with Iran is heading towards a dangerous phase, after years where the US and Iran’s allies clashed, but often backed off from full-scale war.
“That’s certainly a risk,” said Raphael Cohen, an analyst specialised in US air power with the Rand Corporation think tank.
Iran’s proxies, including several militias on the Iraqi government payroll in an organisation called the Popular Mobilisation Forces, were behind most attacks.
Amid the Gaza war, some of the PMF claim to support Palestine against the US and Israel, worsening tensions.
“The fact that these groups haven’t killed Americans from October 7 until now is more a testament to American air defences and frankly lots of good luck, rather than a lack of intent,” Mr Cohen says.
“At the same time, it seems to me that this latest attack and the [more than 150] that preceded it demonstrate that Iran and its proxies are already intent on escalating,” he said.
The President and I will not tolerate attacks on US forces, and we will take all necessary actions to defend the US LLOYD AUSTIN
US Defence Secretary
Sunday’s drone strike on an American military outpost near the Jordan-Syria border, which claimed the lives of at least three US personnel and wounded dozens more, will be an emotional turning point for Washington. Although more than 27,000 people in the Middle East – the vast majority of them Palestinian civilians – have died since October 7, this is the first time the regional conflict has claimed the lives of American soldiers and this will generate understandable anger in the US.
US President Joe Biden has promised to “hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner our choosing”. If recent history is any guide, a series of limited strikes, perhaps against militia targets in Iraq or Syria, will be the likely American response. Nevertheless, vengeful retaliation that lacks a strategic awareness of the possible consequences risks perpetuating the region’s current deadly spiral.
Repeated retaliation is not what the world needs. The reality is that a deeper problem plagues today’s Middle East, the roots of which must be addressed. Ending the occupation of Palestine is crucial to charting a path towards peace. The region finds itself divided between an ideologically driven Iran and those who reject its attempts to wield influence through Tehran’s network of dangerous armed proxies that claim to act under the flag of “resistance” to the West and its allies.
This struggle for dominance is exacerbated by the war in Gaza, in which the US has played a dubious role owing to its political and military cover for an Israeli operation so egregious that it has led to the country facing accusations of genocide in the International Court of Justice. But even if US troops were to leave the Middle East tomorrow – and current talks involving the Iraqi government may lead to such a withdrawal from that country – it is unlikely that Iran-aligned groups would recede from the picture as they continue to undercut state structures.
For now, some form of retaliation by the US can be expected. Not only did Sunday’s attack claim American lives, it also took place in Jordan, thereby setting a worrying new precedent that Washington will regard as requiring a robust response. Mr Biden is also facing the looming political challenge posed by Donald Trump who will capitalise on the fact that under the current administration, the US is embroiled in various conflicts.
But Iran is also emmeshed in a dangerous game, heightening the risks faced by its own population in any escalating conflict. This situation is not helped by the continuing seizure of commercial ships in regional waters by Iranian forces.
There is no doubt that Washington is between a rock and a hard place. It is compelled to respond after losing troops but the risk of a misstep worsening regional tensions is high. Breaking the cycle of violence is the real challenge for all those in the Middle East – and there are many – who rightly regard this chronic threat of war as something that must be consigned to the past. A good first step would be by ending the war in Gaza, followed by a viable path to a two-state solution for Palestine and Israel to ensure long-term stability of the region.