DRONE STRIKE ON TOWER 22 SHOWS US VULNERABILITY IN THE REGION
▶ Washington’s isolated bases in Syria and Jordan offer a tempting target for Iran-backed groups, with analysts predicting a forceful response from Biden
Sunday’s drone attack on an isolated US outpost in Jordan called Tower 22, which killed three US soldiers, has highlighted America’s lingering presence in the region six years after the near-total defeat of ISIS.
The base is one of several established by the US to counter ISIS after 2015, when small contingents of US special forces entered Syria, teaming up with beleaguered Kurdish militias to fight the terrorists.
Unlike larger US bases in Iraq that are well protected, Tower 22 and six similar bases in Syria are vulnerable.
Sites such as Al Tanf in Syria, Conoco, near an old oil and gasfield on the Euphrates, and another known as Green Village nearby are remote and hard to resupply.
Their isolation has made them a target for several enemies, from Iran-backed Iraqi militias to Syrian and Russian forces in Syria.
Tower 22 has been described as a support base for the nearby US Al Tanf garrison, hosting about 350 US soldiers and Air Force personnel.
It exists in a “deconfliction zone” in the Iraq-Syria-Jordan border area, established in a 2016 agreement between the US and Russia.
During the Syrian civil war, Al Tanf was used for training Syrian opposition fighters, some of whom fought against President Bashar Al Assad.
US forces are also stationed alongside Syrian Kurds to the north-east of Al Tanf, in Hasakah, among other small outposts in Kurdish-controlled areas.
The US presence is seen as a thorn in Mr Al Assad’s side,
with Kurds controlling what remains of Syria’s oil industry in the east, although much of the energy infrastructure has been bombed by Turkey, which opposes the US-allied Kurds.
Damascus’s ally Iran views the bases as a project to halt missile and drone transfers to Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon because several of the bases are on transport stops on Syria’s border with Iraq.
Its this combination of factors that makes the area such a flashpoint amid the Gaza war.
The attack calls into question whether the US’s decades-long stand-off with Iran has entered a dangerous new phase, after years when Washington and Tehran’s allies clashed but often backed off from fullscale war.
“That’s certainly a risk,” said Raphael Cohen, an analyst specialising in US air power with the Rand think tank.
Iran’s proxies, including several militias on the Iraqi government payroll as part of an organisation called the Popular Mobilisation Forces,
were behind the majority of the attacks. Amid the war in Gaza, parts of the PMF, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba, have claimed to support Palestine against the US and Israel.
“The fact that these groups haven’t killed Americans from October 7 until now is more a testament to American air defences and frankly lots of good luck, rather than a lack of intent,” Mr Cohen told The National.
“At the same time, it seems to me that this latest attack and the 170-plus ones that preceded it demonstrate that Iran and its proxies are already intent on escalating.”
Michael Knights, an expert on the militias at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: “Iran is running out of rungs on the escalation ladder.
“Many of the obvious options are opportunity-limited, meaning not available to hit right now,” he added, referring to possible US strikes, and “opportunity targets” that can include militia commanders who are travelling.
Iran’s efforts to push US forces from Syria have largely failed – including a February 2018 clash at the Conoco outpost. The base was attacked by Iran-backed Afghan, Pakistani and possibly Iraqi militias, alongside Russian mercenaries and Syrian troops. US air strikes stopped the assault.
That has not deterred the Kataib Hezbollah, which controls the PMF’s drone force and has moved “powerful” weapons across the border.
The US presence in Iraq could end following calls from Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani. Until then, the US has to weigh up options for a counterstrike that will punish the militias without starting a major war.
“I’d expect a more forceful response from the Biden administration than in the past,” Mr Cohen said.
“This attack, after all, killed three Americans and wounded dozens more.
“That can’t go unanswered. A lot of Congressional leaders, mostly on the Republican side, are pushing for a more forceful response, too, so there is a political logic here.
“The question is really what form it takes and whether we target just the proxy group itself or their Iranian backers, too, as some senators are calling for.
““The Biden administration has thus far tended to be cautious, perhaps to a fault, when it comes to these actions,” Mr Cohen added.
“The administration’s first instinct will be to keep it limited, but the fact that Americans were killed here changes things, so it may depend on what the intel says about how closely the Iranians were involved.”