CIA CHIEF DUE IN CAIRO AS US AND ALLIES SEEK TO REVIVE PLAN TO HALT GAZA WAR
▶ William Burns leading effort by Washington, Qatar and Egypt to broker pause in fighting as Rafah offensive looms
CIA director William Burns is due in Cairo today to lead a renewed bid by the US and regional allies Egypt and Qatar to draft an deal that is acceptable to Israel and Hamas to halt the war in Gaza.
This latest attempt comes amid growing fears of even heavier civilian casualties if Israel proceeds with plans to extend ground operations into Rafah, in southern Gaza – where more than half the enclave’s population of 2.3 million people have sought refuge.
Israeli air strikes hit Rafah early yesterday, killing at least 93 people and wounding dozens, Gaza’s Health Ministry said. This came as the Israeli army launched a special forces operation to free two Israeli hostages in the city.
The new round of talks is also taking place amid other diplomatic activity.
King Abdullah II of Jordan visited Washington for talks with US President Joe Biden yesterday, while Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas travelled to Qatar for talks with the country’s leadership and Hamas political leaders.
Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected in Cairo tomorrow. Talks with Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El Sisi are likely to focus on the regional tensions arising from the Gaza war.
These renewed negotiations – which also involve the chiefs of Israel’s Mossad spy agency and domestic security agency Shin Bet – coincide with growing tension between Egypt and Israel over Gaza.
Cairo has threatened to cancel its 1979 peace treaty with Israel if a major ground assault is launched on Rafah.
The Egypt-Israel peace treaty limits the number of troops on both sides of their border in the Sinai Peninsula – although the countries have in the past agreed to modify those arrangements in response to specific security threats. This treaty has allowed Israel to focus its military on other threats.
If Egypt were to nullify the agreement, it could mean Israel can no longer rely on its southern border to be quiet and it would have to bolster its military presence there, further stretching its resources.
In anticipation of an Israeli offensive on Rafah, Egypt has already reinforced its forces on the border with Gaza and Israel, placing its military on high alert. Ground patrols and reconnaissance flights have also been increased in the area, sources in Cairo said.
Egypt has matched these moves with hardline rhetoric, warning that a ground operation in Rafah would have “dire” consequences.
Egypt, like the US and other nations, fears an Israeli incursion into Rafah will result in massive civilian casualties and leave hundreds of thousands of Palestinians with no place to go, except across the border in the Sinai Peninsula into Egypt.
Cairo says Israel would not allow Palestinians who seek refuge in Egypt to return home, placing another hurdle before any future talks aimed at ending the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The influx of Palestinians into the sparsely populated Sinai Peninsula would also jeopardise Egypt’s national security, Cairo fears.
Mr El Sisi has publicly warned Israeli actions threaten to destroy decades-long endeavours to maintain peace between the two nations, through often difficult circumstances.
However, suspending the 1979 treaty would also have serious ramifications for Egypt, which has received billions of dollars in US military and economic assistance as a reward for signing and sticking to it.
Moreover, the treaty has been a cornerstone of the region’s geopolitical landscape. Its suspension or annulment would fuel high regional tensions and increase the potential for allout war in the Middle East.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday confirmed his intention to invade Rafah.
He said his government was working on a plan to evacuate the city beforehand – although it is unclear where more than one million displaced Palestinians could go in Gaza and be safe.
Today’s scheduled talks in Cairo follow Mr Netanyahu’s outright dismissal last week of proposals tabled by Hamas in response to a ceasefire plan by mediators late last month in Paris.
That envisaged a truce of up to three months, during which Israel and Hamas would swap detainees and hostages.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was in the region last week on his fifth tour since the war started, said Hamas’s proposals had some merit but included “non-starters”.
Hamas proposed a comprehensive ceasefire, full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of up to 5,000 Palestinians jailed in Israel, in return for the estimated 130 hostages it has in its custody – including the bodies of those who have died in captivity. Mr Netanyahu called the plan “delusional”.
The Israel-Gaza war began when Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, killing about 1,200 people killed and abducting 240.
Israel’s retaliatory strikes and ground offensive have killed more than 28,300 people in Gaza and wounded almost 68,000. About 85 per cent of its population has been displaced.
Under a week-long truce from late November, more than 100 hostages held by Hamas and about 200 Palestinians from Israeli prisons were released. Of the 132 hostages believed to be still held in Gaza, nearly 30 are presumed dead.
Hamas told Egyptian mediators last Thursday that it would not budge on its demands for a permanent ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, to be accompanied by international guarantees, said sources.
Hamas also says the reconstruction of Gaza should be complete within three years, the sources said. It also wants the siege of Gaza lifted and Israel to resume the supply of water and power to the enclave.