Doubts cast over success of US-led strikes against Yemeni rebel group

▶ Damage to Houthi weapons stockpiles may not be enough to reassure shipping firms, say analysts

Houthi evasion tactics and supply lines from Iran are complicating the West’s efforts to stop attacks on Red Sea shipping, military analysts believe.

Despite several rounds of USled air strikes in Yemen, analysts say there is no certainty these are deterring the Houthis or giving shipping companies the reassurance they need.

The Military Balance report by the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies think tank warns of a “more dangerous decade” ahead, with global defence spending rising to $2.2 trillion amid instability in the world order.

The Israel-Gaza war and the Houthi attacks on shipping contribute to a “highly volatile security environment”, said the report published yesterday.

US-British air strikes are aimed to limit the threat from the Yemeni militia by destroying their military capability and deterring further attacks.

A third round of joint strikes on February 4 hit weapons stores, missile launchers, radars and air defence systems, the Pentagon said.

While the Iran-backed Houthis have reduced the number of attacks on commercial ships this month, it is difficult to tell whether this means the group’s arms stockpile has taken a hit, said experts. “These are very difficult targets to get at,” IISS analyst Nick Childs told The

National. “They are very mobile, easily hidden. There need to be very granular degrees of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Clearly, it hasn’t fully delivered.

“There are question marks over whether there is a more sporadic threat at the moment, and whether that is, as has been claimed, because there has been a degrading of capability. That is, I think, unclear.”

On Monday, the Houthis fired two missiles at a Greek-owned cargo ship heading to Iran, the US military said.

IISS researcher Fabian Hinz said the rebels “have gained quite a lot of experience in hiding their missile capabilities during their years of war”.

He suggested that the Houthis may have smuggled in Iranian weapons or built their own components, as some of their designs look “a lot like they could be local production”.

The IISS believes the group has used Iranian “guidance kits” to convert old Soviet missiles. While the Houthis may not make cruise missile engines, these are considered relatively easy to smuggle.

Even a reduced Houthi threat level deemed acceptable by the US may still be too high for commercial ships, Mr Hinz said, with the rebels having vowed to continue their attacks in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza.

“If you manage to degrade the Houthi arsenal substantially, and then you still have defences that have proven to work very well on US Navy warships, that is a quite favourable outcome from a purely military point of view,” Mr Hinz said.

But, he added, “if you look at the risk tolerance of these shipping companies, basically you would have to degrade the arsenal entirely, and that is something that’s just not possible”.

IISS analyst and former British Army officer Brig Ben Barry expressed concern that a misfiring western missile or an “over-enthusiastic” Iranian proxy group could escalate the situation in the Middle East.

“All these organisations have quite a degree of autonomy and may not necessarily be doing what Iran wants them to do all of the time,” Brig Barry said.

“Despite the very high degree of precision of many western weapons, there’s still the possibility of one going wrong … which could then create an action-reaction cycle.

“So the longer the Israel-Gaza war goes on, the more chance there is that one of the secondary conflicts could accidentally spin out of control.”