Lebanon can’t afford to get drawn into war

▶ A broken economy, a political vacuum and more violence has devastated the Lebanese people

‘Disastrous”, “decimated” and “impoverished” are some of the words used by Nasser Saidi, a former economy minister and deputy governor of Lebanon’s central bank, to describe his country this week. In an interview with The National, he outlined how Lebanon’s economic problems were being exacerbated by the violence of the Israel-Gaza war.

On the same day that Mr Saidi’s comments were published, Israel’s military launched heavy air strikes on Lebanon, hours after a missile attack killed a woman and her son and wounded others in the northern Israeli city of Safed. The Israeli strikes, which hit deeper inside Lebanon than most previous attacks, killed at least nine people.

These are just the latest casualties from a conflict in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. So far, more than 65,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon because of the war, with thousands of Israelis on the other side of the border fleeing these exchanges between Iran-backed Hezbollah militants and the Israeli military. Given its many problems, it is difficult to imagine a country less ready for war than Lebanon. Its economy is estimated to have suffered damages worth $1.5 billion due to the current conflict, and there is little appetite among the public for a fight with its richer, more powerful neighbour to the south. Even Hezbollah, despite its leadership’s bombastic rhetoric of resistance, has so far refrained from launching a full-scale war against Israeli forces.

But the risks of escalation are many. There is a worrying political vacuum in Beirut, where a caretaker government, in the absence of a president, operates with limited powers. This lack of leadership has thrust Hezbollah’s military and political wings to the fore, and the result is an unaccountable, foreign-backed militia trading blows with an Israeli military that is already on a war footing. The risk for Hezbollah is that the Lebanese people will blame it for a war that further bankrupts the nation. There are risks for Israel too – a war that creates an impoverished and rudderless neighbour on its northern border presents a major security threat.

There are ways of mitigating some of these threats. Despite its challenges, Lebanon has links with important international actors that may help to stop the violence worsening. The UN has more than 10,000 peacekeeping troops along the Blue Line and in other locations, and this week French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne presented the Lebanese authorities with a proposal to end the hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. In December, Lebanon’s caretaker Minister of Energy and Water said a historic maritime border deal with Israel still stood. And Lebanon’s internal problems are not beyond solving – the country’s political class can, and should, agree on a government.

Worryingly, however, deadly strikes such as Wednesday’s create a bellicose mood across the country. There are also voices in Israel calling for a stronger response in Lebanon; opposition figure Avigdor Lieberman claims the government has already “surrendered to Hezbollah and lost the north”. Just because Lebanon doesn’t want a war, doesn’t mean it won’t get one.