EU sanctions target Russia amid efforts to boost Kyiv’s drone stock
▶ Move agreed on before second anniversary of Ukraine invasion
The drone war in Ukraine is shaping preparations for the conflict’s third year, as Iran helps to build up a Russian arsenal while the West tries to sever Moscow’s supply line.
New EU sanctions agreed on yesterday aim to increase drone manufacturing for Kyiv and reduce Russian access to drones, particularly the Iran-made Shahed type that has been used in attacks on Ukrainian cities.
The latest sanctions will further tighten trade restrictions against entities linked to the Russian military-industrial complex, diplomats said.
Additional bans on exports to Russia of highly technical components for drone production were also adopted.
Shahed-136 drones, known as the Geran-2 in Russia, have been used in two-pronged attacks with Russian cruise missiles. Iran’s involvement has aggravated relations with the West and resulted in sanctions that have stalled talks over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
With Ukraine’s ground offensive halted by Russian defences, Kyiv is putting ever greater focus on an unmanned air campaign led by a specialist drone branch of the military.
Russia’s forces in February 2022 had an arsenal of heavy Inokhodets combat drones and Forpost reconnaissance equipment, based on a 1980s Israeli model. But it has since bolstered its stock with what western powers say are hundreds of Shahed and Mohajer-type drones from Iran, as well as military hardware from North Korea.
“That fact alone is a sign of weakness, that Russia is dependent on Iran for its military capabilities in attacking Ukraine right now,” said Kurt Volker, a former US special representative for Ukraine.
“They’re dependent on North Korea for artillery shells. This is quite a statement about the state of the Russian military in terms of what this means going forward.”
Disassembled drones from the battlefield in Ukraine have been analysed by western officials, who believe Iran is helping Russia replicate the Shahed type. Analysts at Conflict Armament Research say the Russian variant has been used in Ukraine, with components coming from around the world.
It is thought to combine the Iranian design with “domestic, battle-tested modules” found in other Russian weaponry, with markings suggesting some Geran-2 copies were made early last year.
Researchers have not yet seen evidence of Russia using a new Iranian model, the Shahed-107, which is believed to be a reconnaissance and combat drone.
Last week, Britain, Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, the Netherlands, Spain and Germany announced they were aiming to provide a million drones to Kyiv by increasing their own manufacturing, in a bid to shift the balance of the war.
EU measures, agreed on in time for the February 24 anniversary of the invasion, also aim to cut Russia’s access to drones but officials warned sanctions are “a moving target”.
Under sanctions “it would be harder for Russia to produce these drones with Iran’s help as it would be missing key technology,” Jason Brodsky, a policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, told The National.
“But this is still a whack-amole approach. Iran and Russia can always employ new front companies after sanctions on old ones.”
After Russia invaded Ukraine, diplomats in the West were still hopeful of reviving the nuclear deal that curbed Tehran’s uranium enrichment in return for sanctions relief.
But relations soon soured over Iran’s role in Ukraine and Tehran’s suppression of nationwide protests, leading to sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and senior officials.
Talks on the nuclear deal collapsed, with Russia’s presence at the discussions all but quashing future developments and no further negotiations taking place on the matter for more than a year. The dip in Britain’s relations with Tehran was apparent after the invasion, as Iran was one of seven countries not invited to the coronation of King Charles III last year. Tehran had sent a diplomat to the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II.
As EU foreign ministers met this week to discuss the war in Ukraine and the IsraelGaza war, Austria’s Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said it was crucial that Iran’s nuclear threat was not overlooked.
In “our foreign policy buffet, if you will, our plate is too full”, he said.
“We must not forget to watch some very worrying developments. I am thinking of the Iranian nuclear programme.
“We are in danger of sleepwalking into a situation in which all of a sudden the non-proliferation regime on nuclear weapons is about to fold. If Iran suddenly has a nuclear weapon, we suddenly have to reckon with a nuclear arms race in the Gulf region and perhaps also in South-East Asia and East Asia.”
The fallout from the war in Gaza, with Iran-linked groups involved in fighting around the Middle East and retaliatory US air strikes, has further added to tensions.
UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said Iran’s Houthi allies might use attacks on Red Sea shipping to divert the West’s attention from Ukraine.
“The same kind of drones that are being fired in Ukraine by the Russians, courtesy of Iran, are also being fired by the Houthis,” Mr Shapps said.
However, experts say Tehran does not have total control over such groups.
Drones used in Ukraine have been analysed by officials, who say Iran is helping Russia replicate its Shahed model