A wider war? US and allies face hard choices as strikes on ships continue
Yemen’s Houthi militia continues to launch drones and missiles at ships in the Red Sea six weeks after the US and Britain launched an air campaign to stop such attacks, testing Washington’s commitment to ending the rebel group’s threat in an important global trade route.
President Joe Biden’s administration has tried to balance a strong military response to the attempted Red Sea blockade by the Iran-backed Houthis with the need to avoid the US becoming embroiled in another Middle East war or antagonising Iran, analysts say.
At the same time, the cost of its Red Sea operations is mounting rapidly.
Several rounds of bombardment and missile strikes followed the initial strikes on January 11, but the attacks on shipping have continued.
On Tuesday, the EU launched a naval task force to defend ships from attacks. This is in parallel with a US-led multinational task force, Operation Prosperity Guardian, that began patrolling waters off Yemen in December.
The Houthis claim they are attacking ships linked to Israel, in an attempt to end the Gaza war through economic pressure, although many of the vessels hit have had no link to Israel or the US.
Short of a declaration of war, the US and European allies have been hesitant to carry out sustained strikes on the Houthis.
“In general, the Biden administration has been relatively cautious in terms of its use of force, and we’ve seen this both in the Middle East and as well as in Ukraine,” says Raphael Cohen, an air power strategist at the Rand Corporation, a US defence think tank.
“So, I don’t think the Biden administration will ratchet up military pressure unless something – or some event – truly forces their hand.” Despite Mr Biden’s hesitancy in Yemen, there is an urgency to the campaign: the volume of trade between the shortest and most cost-effective shipping route between Asia and Europe has plummeted since the attacks began. Egypt, already in an economic crisis, has reported a 50 per cent drop in revenue from ships transiting between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean through its Suez Canal as shipping companies opt to send their vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.
Globally, the attacks have pushed up inflation as shippers incur higher fuel costs and insurance premiums.
Economically fragile countries and communities are now under more pressure, paying more for fuel and basic goods, while high-value supply chains have also been disrupted.
The military operation to defend against and deter the attacks also carries a rising cost, with much of the burden borne by the US. At the end of January, the Pentagon said the cost of the operation over four months was $1.6 billion – with two aircraft carriers rotating in the region since the start of the Gaza war.
But this does not include missile interceptions.It was revealed last week that the US had fired 100 missiles, each costing between $4 million and $6 million, to shoot down Houthi rockets.
While a combined $2 billion cost over four months might seem small against a defence budget of about $900 billion, the US might also send up to $17 billion to Israel this year, much of it military aid. That is in addition to recent security commitments to US allies Taiwan and Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the US Navy’s super carriers are in short supply.
The US has 11 of these nuclear-powered, 100,000-tonneplus vessels but typically keeps only three or four at sea at a given time. Three are currently in the Pacific – the USS Ronald Reagan, USS Carl Vinson and the USS Theodore Roosevelt – while the USS Dwight D Eisenhower is in the Red Sea.
“We can devote more assets to the Houthis, but we don’t want to redirect assets from both Europe and the Indo-Pacific at the same time,” Mr Cohen says.
“The Biden administration really does not want to see itself embroiled in yet another Middle Eastern war, particularly now we are heading into an election year.”
Operating the Dwight D Eisenhower, as well as its supporting ships in the carrier group, costs between $6 million and $8 million a day.
“I think the US is in a very difficult position.
“On the one hand, we surged military assets to the region to try to deter an expansion of the conflict, on the other, it may have antagonised Iran and of course, provided more targets,” says Michael Patrick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East.
“I think the US has to make it clear that we will increase our level of response with every attack, and if any of those attacks are successful, Iran should know that they will be held directly responsible.
“That means eventually targets in Iran must be on the table.
“Iran has no problem fighting until the last proxy force.
“That is why they have them. They need to have real consequences.”