EU should prepare for long-term naval operation in Red Sea as rebels escalate strikes on shipping
The EU must prepare for a long-term, dangerous mission in the Red Sea, analysts have told The National.
Houthi attacks last week claimed their first civilian lives since the Iran-backed group began its attacks on commercial ships travelling through one of the world’s busiest trade lanes.
The EU began Operation Aspides, its defensive naval mission in the Red Sea, about three weeks ago, with a one-year renewable mandate.
French, German, Greek, Spanish and Italian warships are stationed in the area, and a Belgian frigate was reportedly expected to depart Zeebrugge port yesterday to join them.
“This is the most dangerous naval operation undertaken by the EU so far,” said Alessandro Marrone, defence programme director at Italian think tank Istituto Affari Internazionali.
The death on Wednesday of three sailors – two Philippine citizens and one Vietnamese – aboard the Barbados-flagged, Greek-operated True Confidence was a “tragedy that was unfortunately likely to happen”, said Mr Marrone.
European warships have destroyed Houthi drones on several occasions, including before the mission was formally launched.
The Red Sea is becoming crowded, however, increasing the risk of friendly fire. On January 28, a German warship mistakenly fired at a US drone.
Also present in the maritime region is a US-led defensive mission called Prosperity Guardian, which includes up to eight frigates, as well as at least a dozen Indian warships stationed east of the Red Sea to fight piracy.
The Indian navy has been assisting stricken ships, and evacuated the surviving 20 True Confidence crew members this week. Four had suffered serious burns.
The incident signalled the growing risk associated with sailing through the Red Sea after the Rubymar cargo ship sank on February 18, days after being hit by a Houthi missile off the coast of Yemen.
An anchor dragging from the Rubymar was probably the cause of the damage to undersea communication cables on Tuesday, said the US government. The damage affected 25 per cent of the data flow through the Red Sea.
The Houthi attacks, which began shortly after the Israel-Ga
za war started in October, have caused insurance costs to soar and forced some vessels to take a detour around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa.
“Increased costs have so far been absorbed by the market but they have the potential to create disruption,” said Chitrapu Uday Bhaskar, a retired Indian naval officer and director of the Delhi-based Society for Policy Studies think tank.
“These non-state attacks pose a really complex challenge for navies around the world and merchant shipping in general.”
Naval missions are about “maintaining a presence and sending a signal that major powers aren’t going to allow this disruption to go beyond a certain point”, he said.
Mr Marrone said that the rapid international response to the Houthi attacks may have contributed to keeping the economic impact under control. However, European governments have a relatively low awareness of the risk they have undertaken by sending their ships to the area.
About 1,000 European personnel have been committed to Operation Aspides, including those at sea and those stationed at headquarters in Larissa, Greece, Mr Marrone said.
“The risk is relatively low because warships are well equipped. But it’s not a zero risk. It’s a conflict against quasi-state actors,” he added.
More needs to be done to improve co-ordination between partners to avoid a repeat of the January 28 GermanUS incident.
“There is a high risk of friendly fire because each mission has a different chain of command,” said Mr Marrone.
Speaking on Friday at the launch of a Cyprus-led maritime aid operation for Gaza, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was in regular contact with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and King Abdullah II of Jordan.
“The situation in the Red Sea is particularly concerning with maritime security deteriorating day after day and critical infrastructure damaged due to repeated Houthi attacks,” said Ms von der Leyen.
Mr Marrone said the navies stationed in the Red Sea must be ready for a “longterm commitment”.
“Even if the war in Gaza will decrease in intensity, there will still be tension,” he said, noting the Houthis’ links to Iran.
“This is more than short-term crisis management.
“Europeans will need to foresee rotational warships and rotational troops to make sure they have stocks of naval ammunition – missiles, torpedo, artillery shells. That entails a certain political and military effort.”
A representative for the EU External Action Service did not give details of how long Aspides is expected to last or the total number of its personnel.
“Any decision is then taken by unanimity of all member states,” the representative said.
“The member states are also equipping the mission based on their decision and capacities in line with the mandate and the needs of the mission.”
The Red Sea is becoming crowded, increasing the risk of friendly fire. On January 28 a German ship fired at a US drone