STATE OF PLAY
As Hamburg’s ITU ‘world decider’ showed, British Triathlon could jeopardise its chances of glory in Tokyo – by picking its strongest team…
There were plenty of talking points in September’s lone ITU World Series showdown in Hamburg, not least whether the event should have been given ‘world championship’ status. Covid-induced vagaries aside, the race also foreshadowed a looming selection dilemma ahead of next summer’s delayed Tokyo Olympics.
Not on the women’s side, where newly-crowned world champion Georgia Taylor-Brown working with perennial swim leader Jessica Learmonth looks a good bet to add to Vicky Holland’s Rio bronze.
It’s on the men’s team where the conundrum lies, and the prickly notion, that having Alistair Brownlee racing hard from the front could be detrimental to GB’s medal chances.
Granted, the race in Hamburg was over sprint distance, but after Alistair led out of the water and drove an eight-man breakaway on the bike leg, once leaving T2 the explosive power of old was lacking. Both Brownlees fell away as Alex Yee emerged to post a 5km run split of 14:24mins. It was the fastest of the day, 14secs quicker than France’s champion Vincent Luis, but still left him 11secs adrift in fifth.
The statistics don’t tell the whole story, but do highlight a tactical issue for British Triathlon ahead of next summer: if Yee is a medal hope, the Brownlees, more than any other triathletes, take the race away from him. The case for Yee is that, aged 22, he’s on the upswing. There’s enough evidence to suggest he’s the fastest runner in the field, including a 13:26min 5km this summer.
However, he’s yet to show he can swim well enough to make the front of the race, stay in a breakaway bike or put together a race-winning run over standard distance at the highest level. Draft-legal tri is no longer, as Lance Armstrong infamously claimed, “a shampoo, blow dry and 10km run”.
As for the Brownlees, now both past 30, can they still outrun an emerging list of ITU contenders (there were seven different WTS winners from eight events in 2019)? There have been only rare glimpses over the past four years to suggest that’ll be the case, but who’d bet against their Olympic pedigree? There’s every chance the pace will be slower than the 29:07min 10km split needed for success in Hyde Park in 2012, and there’s still time to shave off seconds.
But there is another option, and that’s Alistair acting as a super domestique to bring Yee to the front of the race. But where would Jonny fit with that plan? It demands buy-in and trust, not just for Alistair to fulfil his role, but Yee to be competitive enough on the swim and bike. Even Alistair can’t push the pedals for him.
There are caveats. Britain’s men have yet to secure a third qualification spot – although it should be routine once the ITU publishes its amended schedule – and another athlete may break through. For instance, Tom Bishop, Barclay Izzard or Ben Dijkstra.
But it’s hard to look beyond the Brownlees and Yee and, while it’d be the first time British Tri’s sent a men’s team to the Olympics with genuine chances of all three winning a medal, it could also see GB end up with nothing. Who’d be a selector?
“As for the Brownlees, can they still outrun an emerging list of ITU contenders?”