Individual and relay race contenders,
Tokyo 2020 is set to be a Games like no other, and not just because of the pandemic. The tri competition is wide open, there’s a relay event to be won and, most thrilling of all, we have five genuine medal hopes representing Team GB.
Let’s meet their main rivals…
There has never been an Olympic build-up like this before. It feels like a step into the unknown for the Games, which extends to triathlon, too. For the first time, we’ll get to witness the new team mixed relay, where 17 countries will be in tagteam action contesting supersprint-distance glory. But before that, the competition in the individual races is wide-open. Unlike previous Olympics, where names such as the Brownlees, Javier Gomez and Gwen Jorgensen have taken top billing, this time it’s possible to make a winning case for many more. Thankfully, this includes all of Team GB, who’ll arrive with five genuine medal contenders in their own right, plus a formidable relay quartet. Yet they’ll also have their work cut out to win one, with leading contenders coming from a mixture of athletes with proven Olympic pedigree, fearless in-form youngsters and dark horses suited to the hot and humid conditions presented by a Japanese summer. Even having a handle on form is tricky. Where World Series races traditionally provide a pecking order, it’s been different for 2021 as triathletes adhering to Covid compliance have been discerning with their schedules, and some, such as those in Australia and New Zealand, haven’t had much choice at all. Despite the early starts, the heat will be on, so it’s time to look more closely at the contenders, those who might follow in the footsteps of Alistair Brownlee and Gwen Jorgensen from Rio, become the inaugural team champions, and etch their names permanently into Olympic triathlon history…
FLORA DUFFY (BERMUDA)
Forced to pick one name as the Olympic favourite, then it would be Bermuda’s 2016 and 2017 world champion. Famed for her bikehandling skills, 2018 began with Commonwealth Games gold on the Gold Coast and two more World Series wins as Duffy looked set for an Olympiad of Gwen Jorgensen-style domination. Thwarted by a foot injury and subsequent long layoff, Duffy returned to win the shortened Tokyo test event in 2019 – although victory was a little hollow after Georgia Taylor-Brown and Jess Learmonth were disqualified for hand-holding. Last year she placed second to Taylor-Brown in the Hamburg world champs and finished the season strongly, before injury hit once more. However, a fourth place return in the Leeds’ World Series race, where she produced the day’s fastest run, shows she’s closing in on top form once more.
NICOLA SPIRIG (SWITZERLAND)
There’s a paradox about the Swiss. Despite being 39 and heading for her fifth Games with a realistic chance of becoming both the oldest Olympic triathlon champion and the most successful, it’s still unclear how much of a contender she’ll be. That’s because Spirig races so sparingly against the very best in the World Series, and while being a mum-ofthree can explain much of that, she’s long since ploughed a lone furrow in race selection. This was typified by winning Ironman 70.3 Gran Canaria in April as a “training race”, though a more recent victory in a secondtier World Cup in Lisbon shows she has the Olympic-distance range dialled in, too. As strong as anyone on the bike, it was gold in London and silver in Rio. Don’t rule out another history-making medal here.
KATIE ZAFERES (USA)
If the Games had been held as planned in 2020, Zaferes would have started as favourite – now there’s half a nation questioning whether she should go at all. The 2019 world champion saw a first attempt at automatic qualification end with a broken nose and 23 stitches after crashing out in the test event. Then the world changed and Zaferes sadly lost her father. Since triathlon’s delayed restart she’s looked nothing like the athlete who won five from seven World Series races on the way to her world title. The result was a selection dilemma of choosing between an underperforming Zaferes and ever-consistent Taylor Spivey for the final Olympic berth. Spivey had beaten Zaferes in both Japan and Leeds and was ranked second in the world, but the US selectors gambled on Zaferes’ form coming good.
ALSO IN THE MIX
Taylor Knibb and Summer Rappaport add plenty of firepower as the USA tries to defend the women’s Olympic tri title. Two very different athletes, former junior and under-23 world champion Knibb is a powerhouse on the bike, whereas Rappaport’s strengths lie on the run. Another athlete with stellar footspeed is the free-flowing Cassandre Beaugrand. The French star burst on to the world stage as a 21-year-old by leaving the rest of the field in her wake in Hamburg in 2018. Elsewhere, strong swim-biker and Leeds WTCS winner Maya Kingma (NED) has enjoyed a breakthrough summer and looks a cert to be in any breakaways. For an outside chance, keep an eye on Germany’s Laura Lindemann and Kingma’s Dutch
team-mate Rachel Klamer.
VINCENT LUIS (FRANCE)
For a nation steeped in triathlon, France is overdue an Olympic medal, but with the reigning and two-time world champion it may be on the verge of getting one. It’ll be a third Games for the man from Vesoul, who looks more youthful than his 32 years and broke six years of Spanish dominance to win a first world title in 2019. He retained the crown in the one-off shootout in Hamburg in a pandemic-affected 2020 that became part of a five-race winning streak. But question marks remain. The absence of triathletes such as Alistair Brownlee to help forge breakaways doesn’t help Luis’ cause, and although his place in Tokyo was assured, he was also nowhere near his best in finishing sixth in Yokohama in May. After an 11th place in London 2012 and seventh in Rio 2016, he’s started turning potential into success elsewhere, but getting on the podium in 2021 doesn’t look the certainty it once did.
KRISTIAN BLUMMENFELT (NORWAY)
Vying with Lucy Charles-Barclay to be the most versatile triathlete in the world, while others have kept their powder dry in 2021, the Norwegian has been picking up victories and thrusting his name firmly into medal contention. Blummenfelt, who holds the record for the world’s fastest middle-distance time and is signed up alongside Alistair Brownlee for the Sub-7/ Sub-8 project next year, plans his racing schedule the same way as he commits to racing… all action. It means he’s already raced in Japan, Portugal, Italy and the UK this summer – winning the first two in style – before heading home for final preparations.
MORGAN PEARSON (USA)
The former All American runner’s rise in tri has been little short of meteoric. It only started in 2017 when, on driving to see his family in New Jersey, he stopped off to compete at the US age-group champs – and won. By the following year he was racing professionally. At the world champs in Hamburg last summer, he had the fastest run split in the mixed relay to see off GB’s Alex Yee and anchor the US to second. However, this year he’s really hit the headlines. An emotional third place in Yokohama sealed an Olympic qualification spot he dedicated to his brother Andrew, who died in March, and then a silver medal in Leeds put the 27-year-old second in the World Series rankings. Despite a lack of experience on the big stage, he goes to Tokyo as a serious contender.
ALSO IN THE MIX
If the women’s race is hard to predict, the men’s is even tougher. Spaniards Fernando Alarza, Javier Gomez and Mario Mola should be suited to conditions. While perhaps not quite the threat they once were, Gomez and Mola have won every World Series race in nearby Yokohama from 2014-2018. Canadian Tyler Mislawchuk is another who looks suited to the heat and humidity and showed it when winning the test event in 2019. Hayden Wilde was third that day and a fifth place in Leeds shows he’s getting into shape. The Belgians Marten van Riel and Jelle Geens also have chances. Van Riel was sixth in Rio, and won both the Super League Arena Games meets earlier this year. Geens was second in Yokohama in May and a winner on the World Series in 2019. Then there’s South Africa’s Rio bronze medallist Henri Schoeman and Australian Jake Birtwhistle, who could both be in with a shot.