Seasonal cattle price lift makes welcome return
AFTER a few years with little discernible lift in prime cattle prices in the run up to Christmas, 2017 has restored the trend.
Over the past three years the lift in price between the start and end of November has been around 2-3p/kg dwt but this year the lift has been 7-8p/kg dwt on average, according to Stuart Ashworth, Quality Meat Scotland’s head of economic services.
‘The lift in this year’s price for cattle grading R4L is slightly lower, at 6p/kg dwt, so perhaps not surprisingly the higher lift in the average price than the specific R4L grade suggests a higher proportion of premium grades in the overall kill,’ said Mr Ashworth.
Similarly, it is still the case that the current prime stock price is lower than it was in late September.
‘We have to go back to 2014 to find the last time that the end of November price was higher than the end of September price.’
The climb in farm gate beef prices has drawn cattle out with pricereporting abattoirs processing seven per cent more steers and 19 per cent more heifers in the final week of November than they did in the first week of November.
However, compared to last year, the numbers slaughtered were 0.5 per cent lower and with carcass sizes being reduced, the volume of beef actually produced in late November is likely to have been one to two per cent lower.
The same retail analysis shows growth in demand for lamb roasting joints over the Christmas period over the past few years, although Christmas 2016 did struggle a little to prolong the trend.
‘In many parts of Europe, there is firm consumer demand for lamb over the Christmas festival period as well. This consumer behaviour will have contributed to increases in farm gate prime lamb prices. In three of the last four years there has been a sizeable seasonal lift in prime lamb prices through November to the second week of December before losing a little ground into the new year,’ said Mr Ashworth.
The short-term volume of lambs slaughtered also climbs in the run up to the Christmas period. This year has been no different with a bigger supply of prime lambs than for a number of years still benefiting from a lift in price. This has taken current prices above those of a year ago.