Third Covid wave expected in June, says health boss

WE can expect a third wave of Covid-19 – and it may begin to show in early June, but public action and fast vaccination will limit deaths and infections, a Derbyshire health chief has said.

The third wave may be the size of the first last year, experts suggest, but this will depend on adherence to Covid restrictions.

A fast vaccination rollout and following measures to restrict the spread would limit the size of the third peak and delay when it will hit, the health chief says.

A decision to reintroduce measures, such as a lockdown, would depend on the will of politicians and the public, says Dr Robyn Dewis, Derby’s public health director.

While case levels in the county are now the lowest since September, restrictions will continue to be eased through the next few months and vaccine supply shortages have hit the jabs rollout.

This has meant most new jabs are for second doses and has heavily stripped back the numbers receiving first doses.

Dr Dewis said in a Derby City Council meeting last week that the portion still entirely unvaccinated could pave the way for a third wave, as restrictions ease.

She said: “There is a huge amount of uncertainty. We are doing brilliantly in Derbyshire with uptake of the vaccination programme but we are still not there. We still have significant numbers of the population who are not fully vaccinated and do not have a full understanding as of yet how long that immunity is going to last.

“We are undertaking the relaxation of the measures and we need to see how well the population follows those restrictions and the guidance that is in place.

“We know that everybody has had a really difficult year and is really keen to move to a situation of being back to normal as soon as possible, but it is really important that we do continue to follow those restrictions.

“We know that when we relax in June we will not have a fully vaccinated population and this does put us in a position of risk. We are aware that those people who are unvaccinated are probably those who are also mixing the most, most likely to be out socialising or working outside of the home and so there remains that risk that that unvaccinated population may be a trigger for developing a further wave of coronavirus.

“Sage (Government scientific experts) have done some modelling on when we might expect a further wave of coronavirus.

“I like to feel quite positive about seasonality (if the virus will die down in summer and flare again in the winter), if we look back to last summer there was quite a lot of socialising and no vaccination and the numbers remained quite low, so I am very hopeful for the summer, but we are not sure and cannot be certain. We are also not clear as to what appetite there is to change the timeline or the measures, so if we get into May or into June and we can see a resurgence of the virus whether there will be a political or societal will to return to any measures.

“The population are really keen to move on now. The more the virus circulates, the more it multiplies and the higher the risk of variants of concern.

“Sage is fairly convinced there will be a third wave and it is described as possibly as large as the first wave at the beginning of last year, particularly if numbers start to increase earlier in the summer when vaccination levels are not complete.”