What’s selling, what’s not
We look at the latest post-lockdown car buyer data and what’s happening at dealers
Buyer data, latest trends
t’s now just over a month since car dealerships in England were allowed to reopen, and while it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions, sales patterns are starting to appear. Here we investigate the most pertinent trends emerging in the car industry’s new normal.
Are dealers selling cars? Emphatically, yes – although the used and nearly new car market is in far ruder health than the new car market, boosted by stock being immediately available rather than at the end of an indeterminable waiting list, subject to factories reopening and the speed at which they can build cars while observing social distancing protocols.
Already, though, it’s fair to say that opening dealerships was a catalyst in shifting fortunes for the car industry from rock bottom, with many of the big retail groups reporting sales activity that was up, year on year, throughout the month.
However, there are ongoing concerns regarding the pace at which new car registrations (announced on Monday) are picking up – a process that inevitably takes time due to stock limitations and lead times – and over how long the pent-up demand will last.
At present, data from our sibling website whatcar.com – which is polling more than 6000 would-be buyers every week – suggests there is a pipeline of interest that stretches well beyond this autumn.
Are new car discounts rising? There is still no consistent picture of what is happening to new car discounting postlockdown – largely because the
Number of car makers that have increased their discounts since lockdown eased aforementioned pent-up demand is ongoing, and we will only see the whites of the eyes of manufacturers and retailers when demand slumps.
What Car?’s Target Price data – which reflects the price its mystery shoppers can achieve as a fair price across the country – has highlighted some manufacturers that have increased discounts since the end of lockdown, but few by much.
The top 12, in descending order, are Volvo, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Skoda, Mazda, Jaguar, Renault, Vauxhall, Hyundai, Peugeot, Citroën and Mitsubishi, with percentage increases ranging from double digits to less than 1% across the range of that list. Others, in contrast, are standing firm, largely looking to maximise profits from what stock they can get
their hands on.
Proportion car buyers who said they were delaying buying in case there’s a
scrappage scheme
What about used car prices?
High demand and low supply – with auctions and trade-ins, as well as the cycle of lease returns, all having ceased in lockdown – has given some comfort to dealers who have had to sit on what would normally have been depreciating stock during lockdown.
The biggest risers are cars at the older, cheaper end of the market, boosted by buyers’ eagerness to avoid public transport. Cap HPI data suggests that some models have enjoyed price boosts of more than 20% from March until now.
At the newer, high end of the market, prices are more dependent on the desirability of the car, but there is still strong evidence of values holding firm for now, with Car Dealer Magazine even reporting Big Motoring World dealership boss Peter Waddell as saying that he could be in line for his “best-ever June”.
Are people buying different types of car? What’s clear is that consumer intent has shifted – although it’s too early to say if this is being realised in retailers. As head of the Volkswagen Group in the UK, Alex Smith has a better overview of the