In the paddock: Dieter Rencken

The reasons why some new grand prix venues flourish while an equal number fail remain frustratingly hard to pin down

ASKED HOW FORMULA ONE MANAGEMENT, THE sport’s commercial rights holder, intended filling the conspicuously large number of ‘white’ (empty) seats at Suzuka in the future, Ross Brawn, MD of FOM’S sporting operations, opined: “We need a local driver…”

While there is no denying that the presence of a local driver could aid a race promoter’s cause, a home-grown hero is hardly a guarantee of sellouts, as Germany proves during ‘even’ years, when the country that invented the motor car gets to stage its Grosser Preis at the legendary Hockenheimring.

Despite being situated a little over an hour’s drive from reigning champion Mercedes-benz’s HQ in Stuttgart and its AMG subsidiary in Affalterbach (and three hours from BMW’S Munich base), able to punt three German drivers, one of whom is four-time champion Sebastian Vettel – plus having a call on reigning world champion Nico Rosberg – the circuit battles to half-fill its stands, even on alternate years.

Canada perennially managed to fill its stands even when fans had no driver on the grid, while thousands of Mexicans packed Austin in homage to Sergio Perez, but stayed firmly south of the border once the country joined the calendar. Hovering in the middle is Spain, which experiences booms or (almost) busts, depending upon the odds facing Fernando Alonso, while Carlos Sainz hardly rates a look-in.

Spa-francorchamps this year and last was a sea of orange in honour of Max Verstappen, but the Dutch are ardent patriots who follow national heroes in whatever sport they excel, and the circuit in the Ardennes lies within 50 miles of the country’s most southerly border. True local hero Stoffel Vandoorne, though, hardly caused a spike in ticket sales.

Silverstone manages to attract record crowds mainly through the lure of Lewis Hamilton – and Jenson Button before him – but the fact is that Britons love motor racing, particularly F1, and would likely flock to the first venue to stage a world championship grand prix even in the absence of a home-grown champion. Crowds would be down, yes, but not desperately so.

By contrast, Finland delivered three world champions (and five F1 winners), yet the closest the country comes to a grand prix is Rally Finland, euphemistically dubbed the ‘Gravel Grand Prix’ on account of the WRC event’s spectacularly high speeds. Occasionally Finnish folk mention a street race – usually for categories other than F1 – but just as quickly such talk fades.

All of which brings Brawn’s comments and the recent dismissals of city centre grands prix by both Amsterdam and Rotterdam councils into focus, notwithstanding Verstappen’s popularity. If anything, an Amsterdam spokesperson tweeted, any Dutch Grand Prix should be held at Zandvoort and not in [old] city centres. Whether the ‘circuit in the dunes’ is able

– or wishes – to get its F1 act together is another question.

Simultaneously, though, Copenhagen’s city fathers are said to be seriously considering a street grand prix off the back of Kevin Magnussen’s popularity, and are said to have submitted a proposal. That question marks continue to hang over the Dane’s tenure at Haas F1, despite internal assurances that all is well, does not seem to overly concern the Copenhagians.

Who knows, the race may sink or prove to be a roaring success – whether or not Magnussen has a long F1 career. For over the past decade the split is fifty-fifty: of 10 newcomers to the calendar, five have flunked. This statistic applies equally to street circuits and permanent venues, inner city or rural.

To further prove there is no rhyme or reason to success, consider this: one street race in particular (Singapore) proved an outstanding success despite having no local driver to fete; another, Valencia, failed spectacularly, Alonso’s then-successes notwithstanding. In a further twist, New Jersey’s much-vaunted harbour event was canned after being confirmed by the FIA.

Folk argue that Singapore’s success is largely down to its night-time setting, but would an 8pm start have saved Valencia? Why would it? In desperation the promoters moved the event from the heat of August to June’s more moderate climate, yet still crowd numbers tanked – despite the city’s Mediterranean location, a surplus of hotels in the area, and affordable flight links to most major European cities.

On the permanent-circuit front the statistics are equally baffling: Turkey’s grand prix, held within Istanbul’s borders (population 15 million), was a goner within seven years despite being held on a superb circuit and FOM taking over the event’s promotions, while Austin’s race, staged 15 miles from the city (population two million), pulls 100,000 crowds despite there being little US commercial interest in F1.

All of which proves that there simply is no magic bullet.

Yes, research can inform decisions, surveys are able to pinpoint areas of interest, but ultimately the success of whatever venue F1 heads to next will be as much about suck-it-and-see as scientific. Hanoi, anyone?

“Turkey’s grand prix was a goner despite being held on a superb circuit”