Hamilton, Ricciardo key to F1 market
FORMULA 1
Formula 1 lacks the sort of silly season that has erupted in Motogp in 2018, but whatever chance it has of enjoying a driver merry-go-round appears to rest with Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton.
A new contract between Mercedes and Hamilton should be a given. The two parties have won three drivers’ and four constructors’ titles in four seasons, they work well together, and have both effectively described it as a formality to continue beyond 2018.
Hopefully, Hamilton’s inking of a new deal with Mercedes will have a domino effect. Red Bull team boss Christian Horner believes Red Bull will not be able to confirm it is keeping Daniel Ricciardo or make a call on Carlos Sainz Jr’s future until Hamilton is announced at Mercedes, and those two drivers in turn have a big say in what happens throughout the grid.
Ricciardo is out of contract at the end of 2018 and has been waiting to see if there are options at Mercedes or Ferrari before committing to Red Bull, which will use Honda engines next year. But Mercedes is expected to retain Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas, while Ferrari will pair Sebastian Vettel with either current team-mate Kimi Raikkonen or rising star Charles Leclerc.
Ricciardo is keen to close the pay gap between himself and team-mate Max Verstappen, who signed a lucrative new deal last year, and at last weekend’s Austrian Grand Prix both Ricciardo and Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko declared a new deal is “getting closer”. Marko even used the same description Mercedes has given of Hamilton’s long-running contract saga, saying it was “just details” that needed to be clarified.
Red Bull is in a strong position on the driver market because Sainz, currently on loan at Renault, remains under contract and can be called back should Ricciardo leave. The problem for Sainz is that Verstappen is on a long-term deal for the other Red Bull seat, so if Ricciardo stays his options appear limited to Renault or Mclaren. The former is not a bad deal, given it is a works team that has been on the rise since it returned in 2016, but he will not be the only driver keen on a Renault seat.
With Bottas impressing Mercedes so far
“RAIKKONEN MAY BE FORCED INTO A MCLAREN REUNION OR RETIREMENT”
in 2018 and doing what he can to earn a new deal, Mercedes’ junior driver Esteban Ocon is likely staring at a third year with Force India. The customer team, however, is enduring production problems with new parts that seem to be traced to a lack of budget. There are two possible consequences here. Mercedes could be tempted to get more involved to steady that ship and use it as a full-on vessel for its young drivers, by partnering Ocon with Formula 2 championship leader George Russell (see right). The other is that, either as a result of greater Mercedes involvement or a lack of faith in Force India’s prospects, the well-backed Sergio Perez makes a move.
Perez would naturally be interested in Renault given it is a works team. Renault could also be interested in a driver who has compared very well to its current star Nico Hulkenberg, and also brings a financial incentive. While Marko expects Renault to stick with Hulkenberg and Sainz, it is not necessarily a given.
If Force India did not appeal and the Renault door is closed, Perez may look at Haas or Sauber. Both teams have close links to Ferrari and are producing performances that suggest their respective relationships are working well. Perez would be appealing to both given he has a strong reputation as a leading midfield driver, as well as the aforementioned budget benefits.
Sauber looks like it will have at least one seat available given Leclerc appears Ferrari-bound. That seat is almost certainly not going to be free until 2019 – while that sounds obvious, it was a silly-season rumour that was dismissed in Austria. Sauber team boss Frederic Vasseur says there has been no discussion with Ferrari over Leclerc taking Kimi Raikkonen’s seat during the current F1 season, after rumours emerged in the build-up to the Austrian GP suggesting Ferrari president Sergio Marchionne wants to fast-track Leclerc’s promotion.
One big factor is Fernando Alonso’s future. If he doesn’t want to stay in
F1, Mclaren will be struggling for a replacement. A Stoffel Vandoorne-lando Norris partnership does not seem to appeal, but tempting Ricciardo, Sainz, Bottas or Raikkonen – all of whom have been linked to the Woking squad – will be an extremely difficult task given its current struggles.
The only driver for whom that would not represent career stagnation is Raikkonen, who may well be faced with a choice between a one-year Mclaren reunion and retirement. If the driver market reaches that conclusion, F1 will have done very well indeed.