INSIDE TRACK
The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap, a 2 mile 4 furlong stormer over fences, comes under starters orders at 1.55pm, writes Julie Williams.
The first of three graded races on an excellent card at Cheltenham this Saturday.
RATHER BE ( 10/ 3) heads the betting for Nicky Henderson.
He was brought down four out in the BetVictor Gold Cup Chase last time out at Cheltenham in what was a scrappy race - only six of the 18 runners completed.
BARON ALCO ( 13/ 2) and FRODON ( 9/ 1) were the first two home but RATHER BE is considered the more promising of the three by cautious bookmakers.
At the price I would not be with the favourite despite the trainer having won this twice in the last ten years.
RATHER BE fell before that race got competitive and we are yet to see whether the seven- year- old can master the Cheltenham Hill.
It’s not his class that is the issue ( three wins from three runs in December, two from two runs on ground described as good to soft) just the price.
That and that fact that the last favourite to win this race was POQUELIN in 2009.
Last year’s winner for the excellent Nicky Richards was GUITAR PETE ( 9/) 1 who ran a valiant third to BARON ALCO last time out.
The nine- year- old saves his best for this month with two wins from three runs coming in chilly December.
Running off an official mark of 137 he is weighted 3lbs higher than his previous highest winning mark. It is not insurmountable.
GUITAR PETE has claims as the price implies but perhaps there are others better handicapped.
Bottom weights and top have won this belter of a race but it is a belter of a trainer in Paul Nicholls who has made it his own with a double from POQUELIN in 2010, a triumph with UNIONISTE in 2012 and a canter with FRODON in 2016.
Even if FRODON stands his ground for Saturdays’ thriller , at a price, it is the Paul Nicholls ‘ second string’ ROMAIN DE SENAM that offers each way value at 20/ 1.
The six- year- old fell at the first in that messy Betvictor Gold Cup.
If that hasn’t left a mark he can be competitive off a low weight despite a relatively modest strike rate of five from 25 under rules.
Historically October is the best time to catch the horse, with three wins from four that month. Sometimes you have to buck the trend.
A string of lacklustre runs has brought his official rating from a high of 145 to the current 137 ( crucially 2lbs below his last winning mark). Perfect form for a handicapper slipping under the radar you might say. We can dream!
Venetia Wi l l i a m s l a s t won this race in 2014 with NICEONEFRANKIE. It is hard to know if CEPAGE ( fourth placed in a higher graded race at Cheltenham last time out in April) has the necessary improvement in him, but with a stable who explode into life in December perhaps CEPAGE 20/ 1 could outrun big odds too.