Tories and SNP in two- horse race
Election result too close to call
There are no absolute certainties in the world of politics. For proof, just ask the man who said he would rather “die in a ditch” than seek a Brexit extension and who would take us out of Europe on October 31 “no ifs or buts”!
Just in case you hadn’t noticed – October 31 was last week . . . and Brexit has been extended to January 31.
And when a civilised country’s Prime Minister can’t even deliver his own promises – you know it’s time for a general election!
Ever since Boris bit the ballot bullet last week – I’ve been inundated by requests to predict the next Member of Parliament for the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency.
So, today I’m going to give you the only cast iron, absolute certainty about the forthcoming general election . . . our next MP’s surname will start with a “D”! Yep – it’s a pretty lame prediction, isn’t it?
But when it comes to local politics at parliamentary level – we live in pretty lame times.
Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson is all over national television - putting up a fairly plausible case why she should be in No 10.
But with just six weeks to go until Election Day – her local party has still to put up a candidate, never mind a plausible one! It’s poor party management. Meanwhile, over at the Labour offices, their faces should be as red as that flag they keep singing about.
The party that once straddled Ayrshire like a behemoth has, just as this week’s paper went to press, announced a candidate – but has little hope of even coming second in the race for Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock.
How did they selecting their nominee – did they sit in a circle and spin a bottle? And yet this is the party that got my “X” in every election over a four decade career as a card carrying trade union member. How sad.
The Scottish Nationalists weren’t exactly quick off the blocks either – but they at least named their contender four weeks ago. For all three parties, it’s still gobsmackingly short- sighted.
When Theresa May announced her intention to quit - SIX months ago – all the rival parties should have been put on a general election footing.
The only party off the hook are the Conservatives who couldn’t have predicted sitting Tory MP Bill Grant would trigger his own ejector seat! But even then, you have to wonder if Martin Dowey was the constituency’s first choice . . . or their only choice? So there you have it . . and will that “D” I’m so confidently predicting it will be Dorans or Dowey? I’ll save that call for my first column in December!
But if Mr Dowey walked into my pub tomorrow – my first question would be fairly obvious.
Yes – I’d ask “What can I get you to drink, Martin?” But my second question would be where he stood on Brexit. Will he support the majority of his constituency and side with “remain”. Or will he play followmyleader and do whatever Boris asks him to do?
For Mr Dorans, I’d like to know if a guaranteed second referendum on Brexit – from whatever form of government we elect on December 12 - would cool the SNP’s desire for a second referendum on independence?
The first general election I ever “covered” was October 1974 when the Glasgow Herald paid me £ 5 to send them the midnight result from Ayr. My report read . . .
George Younger ( Conservative) - 17,487
Robin S. Stewart ( Labour) - 14,268 Elizabeth Ann Robinson ( SNP) - 6,902
Neil Murray Tosh ( Liberal) - 2,611 So, in this election of no absolute certainties . . I’ll finish with a second one. The gap between the Nats and the Tories will be a bit tighter than 10,000 votes!
I’m so confidently predicting it will be Dorans or Dowey?