9000 swaying voters key to election win
I can’t pour a pint of beer these days - or even buy a pint of milk in Morrisons - without somebody stopping to ask me who will be our next Member of Parliament.
And that’s the problem. While topping up a Tennent’s, I’m telling Joe Soap that the SNP’s Allan Dorans will get swept into Westminster in a resurgent Nationalist swell. And half an hour later at the semi- skimmed section, I’m telling Mrs Soap that the Conservatives 2017 majority of 2774 votes is a pretty big number for anyone to overturn and overtake. The one thing that can be said for certain is that the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock seat will be decided by our old electoral friend, the “swaying voter”. And that’s where we come to our second problem. There are almost 9,000 of them! Where did I get that number from? Well, I got the number 10,000 from the difference between the 25,402 voters who supported the SNP’s Corri Wilson in 2015 . . . and the 15,778 still with her in the 2017. I then found the number 8,000. That was the difference between the Conservative’s 10,355 with Lee Lyons in 2015 and the 18,500 who went will Bill Grant just two years later. Between 10,000 and 8,000 - I’ve gone for the middle. And its those 9,000 who hold the fate of this seat in their hands. I’m sorry I haven’t mentioned Labour or the Liberal Democrats anywhere - but that’s mostly because they aren’t anywhere! Sandra Osborne gathering 21,632 Labour votes in 2010 wasn’t even a decade ago - but it must feel like a lifetime to the traditional Labour card carriers.
When I joined the Ayrshire Post in 1973, a monkey with a red rosette would have won the old South Ayrshire seat. And I still meet elderly, retired miners who’ll tell you that they actually had one - called Jim Sillars! His 1976 switch to the new Scottish Labour Party is still a running sore with Labour die hards. But we’ve since had boundary changes, the rise and fall of New Labour and the rise and rise of the Scottish National Party. And I think it’s safe to predict that Sandra’s 21,632 votes for Labour in this Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency will never be equalled - well not in my lifetime anyway. If their 2019 choice, Duncan Townson, can match Carol Mochan’s 11,000 votes in 2017 - he’ll have acquitted himself with distinction.
The Liberal Democrats must have created some kind of record in choosing Helena Bongard - the first person to be on the Prospective Candidates List and the Endangered Species List at the same time! I mean - has ANYBODY seen her?
Helena didn’t show up for the official candidates briefing. And the Lib Dems haven’t even acknowledged my email inviting her to tonight’s ( Wednesday) hustings at the Twa Dugs. It’s a breakdown in basic communications - which is pretty bad form for a Communications Officer at the Scottish Parliament! For the record, Callum Leslie won 872 Lib Dem votes in 2017. So, despite the race card showing four runners - the 2019 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Parliamentary Stakes is a two horse race. And if you’re looking to the bookies for some guidance on form - you’ll find the SNP at 8/ 11,
Conservatives 6/ 4, Labour at 33/ 1 and the Liberal Democrats at 100/ 1. Our nations’ bookmakers may be lots of things . . . but daft isn’t one of them. They know that Corri Wilson’s 25,000 SNP votes in 2015 are still out there . . . somewhere.
And with a strong, popular, local candidate in Allan Dorans - they’re laying that he will win back at least 75% of them. That’s 18,750 votes - spookily close to the 18,550 that got Bill Grant over the line in 2017! Conservative Martin Dowey is then left with a simple two- pronged attack. 1) A vote for the Nats will accelerate momentum for Inderef 2 2) And a Lab/ Nat coalition could put Corbyn in Downing Street - in return for Inderef2
And if that puts the frighteners on a large chunk of that “swaying 9000” - Martin’s back in the game. Inderef fear may be the “X” factor the Tories need - but Martin will also be aware of the “B” factor . . . Brexit and Boris.
And that’s two very awkward elephants to hide in the room.
Talking of rooms, I was looking forward to hearing all the candidates go “head to head” in a traditional “hustings” - but was told none had been arranged.
So . . . why not stage one myself? I invited all four candidates to an informal “Question Time” session in the humble surroundings of the Twa Dugs tonight - ( Wed Dec 4) at 7.45pm And I’m delighted to say that Messrs Dorans, Dowey and Townson all kindly agreed to attend. Coming early is advisable. If all 9000 “swaying” voters turn up . . . I’m going to need more seats!