I predict an SNP gain at the polls
When this week’s general election was first announced – and the world and its auntie started asking me to forecast who would be Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock’s next MP – I thought I’d stall for time by promising my prophesy in my final column before polling day.
Well . . . I guess I can’t stall any longer! I also have to confess that I pledged this fortune telling act before all the candidates had even been chosen. And having met and listened to them at my unofficial hustings last week – they haven’t made the task any easier. Setting their policies and politics aside, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock will have an honest, hard- working MP in any of the three main candidates.
But it’s what they stand for that will make one of them stand- out on Thursday. . . and the also- rans stand aside on Friday.
Over the last few weeks I’ve been listening to local voters, I’ve been opinion polling while pint pulling . . . and I’ve been looking for pointers in previous voting patterns.
To give my predictions even more gravitas and authority – I scattered the bones from Sunday’s roast chicken onto the patio in the hope of some mystical guidance.
I was starting to get a strong message from the ‘ other side’ . . . when the seagulls moved in!
My first prediction is a higher turnout than 2017 when almost 65% of the electorate turned out – that’s almost 47,000 voters.
With so much at stake this time – I’m reckoning on a 70% turnout with up to 51,000 going to the polling stations.
Martin Dowey’s Conservative campaign has been a strong one. On the plus side – the Tories appear to be the only party that will stop an Indyref 2 in its tracks. They will also, they claim, “Get Brexit Done”. On the negative – he hasn’t the personal pulling power of his predecessor Bill Grant. There’s also a considerable swathe of potential Tory votes who want the UK to remain in Europe ... but Scotland to remain in the UK. And there are some who just don’t trust Boris.
The Scottish Nationalists have fielded their strongest possible candidate in Allan Dorans.
On the plus side - he can reignite the SNP engine that swept Cori Wilson to an invincible 25,000 votes in 2015.
Likeable, approachable, he will make a great local MP. And with Labour in the doldrums locally, he’s the natural “Stop Boris” candidate.
On the negative - he’s a true nationalist and an independent Scotland isn’t for everyone.
Talk of a deal with Labour, Corbyn going in the front door of No10 – and Indyref2 coming out the back door – are his weakest links.
Labour has a bright, young hopeful in Duncan Townson – but it’s not his time.
His next step should be a Labour perch on South Ayrshire Council – and grow his reputation an confidence.
Impressive at the hustings, he sold himself better than his rivals.
On the plus side – he supports all the Labour building blocks of employment, the NHS, housing and social justice.
And in South Ayrshire, he will have many die hard supporters.
On the negative - he’s an outsider in the betting and many will want to vote tactically elsewhere.
The Liberal Democrats? Locally – are you kidding?
Their “paper” candidate has been invisible throughout the campaign.
They’re an embarrassment to true Liberal Democrats in South Ayrshire and have set their party back, probably irretrievably!
So – here’s how I see it!
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock - SNP GAIN
Helena Bongard ( Liberal Democrats) .............. 526
Allan Dorans ( SNP) ........................ ................... 22,747
Martin Dowey ( Conservative) ....... ....................... 17,909
Duncan Townson ( Labour) ........... ........................ 10,022
Did I hear someone say “Put your money where your mouth is”?
Er . . OK!
If I’ve NOT got all the placings correct – I’ll give £ 100 to any charity chosen by our new MP!
And with Labour in the doldrums locally, he’s the natural ‘ Stop Boris’ candidate