Dire warning over Covid care in wards
Our hospitals face a COVID- 19 catastrophe – with a bed space crisis set to engulf them within weeks.
The Post can reveal how a bombshell Scottish Government report predicts capacity on local COVID- 19 bed spaces will be outstripped by a staggering 200 per cent increase in demand.
That could lead to COVID patients in Ayrshire, who need hospital treatment, being transferred to the Louisa Jordan Hospital in Glasgow – if local capacity cannot be met.
Currently, hospitals in Ayrshire and Arran have just 203 beds to treat victims of the pandemic.
However, the government paper, titled ‘ A levels approach to suppression of COVID19,’ warns that as many as 419 beds will be needed by the start of December.
The document also predicts how COVID- 19 bed space in the region will reach near- capacity by November 19.
And by November 26, predicted demand for COVID beds will touch 241, outstripping capacity in already over- stretched hospitals.
Demand will finally outstrip capacity by more than 200 per cent by December 3, according to the report.
Scottish Conservative MSP for Ayr, John Scott, warned that the region was entering a “difficult period” and that every effort had to be made to ensure that NHS staff were supported ahead of what is to come.
He said: “The forecast of demand for the number of beds potentially available for Covid patients contained in the Scottish Government document shows that, over the weeks to come, the pressure on hospitals here in NHS Ayrshire and Arran is expected to be very great indeed, with demand predicted to significantly exceed the number of beds available.
“We need to do everything possible to help ensure our hospitals and NHS staff are not overwhelmed, and measures contained within the Winter Preparedness Plan, including mutual aid arrangements between NHS boards to ensure there is enough capacity to deal with peak levels of demand, are welcome in helping plan for this.”
But in another bitter blow to the beleaguered region, it’s also predicted there will be a shortage of ICU beds ( intensive care unit) in Ayrshire and Arran within the next fortnight.
The region only has 20 ICU beds but the report predicts that 42 will be needed for patients before the end of Novembermove than double the current capacity.
It all adds up to a perfect storm for hard- working NHS hospital staff as we approach the winter months.
Mr Scott added: “We are heading into what is going to be a difficult period, and the priorities must be to save lives, treat Covid- 19 patients and ensure that healthcare is delivered to those who need it.”
Dr Crawford McGuffie, Medical Director, revealed that a plan to “repurpose” beds could free up spaces to cope .
He said: “NHS Ayrshire & Arran has prepared extensively to deal with COVID- 19 and continues to work to ensure we have the right resources, equipment and staffing in place.
“This has included the repurposing of surgical beds for COVID- 19 patients as well as having COVID- 19 capacity in newly opened areas and our infectious disease ward. We have also repurposed part of the Day Surgery Unit to enhance our critical care capacity. This repurposing of beds has meant a small decrease in the space available for nonCovid procedures and was done with sufficient notice to avoid cancelling patients who had already been booked for procedures.”
A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “Our over- riding priority continues to be that the NHS is not overwhelmed in the coming weeks and months. We continue to work closely with all Health Boards, including NHS Ayrshire and Arran, to ensure they have robust plans in place to deal with a range of pressures on capacity, including COVID- 19.
“We can re- purpose approximately 3,000 acute beds nationally as part of our contingency planning, including the ability to double their ICU capacity to 360 within one week, treble to 585 in two weeks and, if required, extend this to over 700, subject to staff and supplies. Mutual aid arrangements are also in place between NHS Boards to ensure there is enough capacity to deal with peak levels of demand.”
The spokesperson added: “In addition, NHS Louisa Jordan stands ready to help manage any additional demand of COVID- 19 patients for hospitals by providing care for individuals who have tested positive, require hospitalisation, but are in a stable condition and do not need critical care and, if necessary, to offer high dependency level care.”