‘New Covid strain probably here’
Bath will not stay in tier 2 for long because the new, faster spreading Covid strain is almost certainly in the area, says B&NES’ health chief.
Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, kept B&NES in tier 2, while Bristol, the rest of Somerset, Gloucester and North Somerset moved into tier 3 from Boxing Day.
But Dr Bruce Laurence, the council’s public health director, said: “I fear tier 2 won’t be our final destination here. I don’t suspect we’ll be tier 2 much longer and we will all just have to accept that.
“The fact we have stayed in tier 2 is absolutely no cause for people to think they can let up.”
He added that the new variant of coronavirus, which spreads faster than previous strains, is “almost certainly” in Bath and North East Somerset by now given the area’s transport links.
He said: “The new strain is almost certainly here and other parts of the South West given the links between Bristol, Bath and London.
“We can’t give an estimate yet [as to the percentage of cases which are this new strain] as only a small
sample of tests are further tested for strains.
“The new strain is believed to spread rapidly and we know we have it in the South West. It’s thought it can raise the R rate by 0.4 or be anywhere from 50 to 70 per cent more infectious.
“Yet it’s important to remember the compound effect of even one
infection which then could spread to 70 per cent more people as it’s viral.”
Dr Laurence said on the whole Bath had escaped the high levels of infection during the first wave of the pandemic but was seeing cases rise now.
He said: “In general Bath had mostly low rates in the first wave. In
the second wave, we saw some higher levels in part due to students coming back but also just generally. Over the second lockdown we saw the case numbers really reduce a lot - a low point but now it is going back up again just like it is everywhere else.
Dr Laurence said that Bath’s case rate was 107 per 100,000 at the moment which he said was “low compared to rest of England and low compared to the rest of the South West but it is going up now.”
He also acknowledged that there had been significant pressure on hospitals in the area although that was slightly improved.
On Monday, December 21, the Royal United Hospital in Bath said it still had over 200 staff members off sick or isolating due to Covidrelated problems.
The week before the hospital had confirmed it had almost 300 staff off (296) showing the pressure the hospital has been under.
In terms of deaths from coronavirus, Dr Laurence said that Bath had had 113 people die within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test, with roughly half dying in care homes.
In terms of vaccination, he said that people would need to be patient and wait for their slot.
He said: “A handful of people in Bath and North East Somerset have been vaccinated so far.
“The system is just getting up and running across the country so people will need to be patient.
“Having the other vaccine, the Oxford/astrazeneca, as well as the Pfizer vaccine will make a huge difference but people need to remember we’re at the start of the start of the campaign.”