What was Britain’s most unexpected general election result?
The answer to this question is more complex than it may first appear. Unexpected for whom? For the party or prime minister that called the election? For the general public? Or opinion polls predicting the result?
Before the rise of the party system in the early 19th century, elections were generally fought on a seat by seat basis. However, national votes still counted. A notable general election occurred in 1784 when William Pitt the Younger won a dramatic victory over Charles James Fox, turning his minority government into one with a majority of more than 120 seats.
In the 19th and early 20th centuries, politics was dominated by parties rather than people. Unexpected results include the 1841 victory of Robert Peel’s Tories over the Whigs, who had dominated for a decade; and the 1906 Liberal landslide, which also saw the Labour party making an impact, winning 29 seats.
But my favoured candidate for the most unexpected result is Clement Attlee’s victory over Winston Churchill in 1945. Although opinion polls predicted Attlee’s win, establishment politicians and commentators did not. As a popular war leader, Churchill was expected to sweep to victory, as had been the case with David Lloyd George in the ‘coupon’ election of 1918. In fact, the public preferred Labour’s focus on Britain’s future and postwar reconstruction. Attlee was returned with a swing of more than 10 per cent – an achievement that has not been replicated since.
Sarah Richardson, professor of history at the University of Warwick