It’s a long shot, but if Blackpool can do it...
Can Villa still make it to the top 6 this season? We ask the experts
STEVE Bruce suggested it would take Devon Loch-like collapses at the top of the Championship for Villa to make the top six this season.
But is there actually more chance of finding Shergar than Villa finding themselves in the play-off places come the start of May?
We asked our very own football stattos to see if the faithful still need to wear their lucky socks to the final eight games – or whether they should forget it and look ahead to next season instead.
The average points won by teams across the play-off places varies dramatically.
Those finishing in third averaged 82.1 points over the past ten seasons. Those in sixth averaged 73.1. It won’t surprise you to find out that those finishing fourth and fifth accumulated points tallies somewhere in between! SIXTH-PLACED TEAMS AND TALLIES Sheffield Wed Ipswich Town Brighton Leicester City Cardiff Nottm Forest Blackpool Preston Watford Southampton
Villa have 51 points from 38 games and, while that is three times the 17 points they finished their Premier League relegation campaign with, it’s hardly top-six Championship form.
It means they are averaging 1.34 points per game.
Extrapolated across the whole 46-game season that would give them just shy of 62 points.
That’s far fewer than the average for a side finishing sixth and fewer than any team to qualify for the play-offs over the past ten seasons.
There’s eight games left so if Villa got a maximum return from them they could pick up 24 more points, which would give them a 75-point finish.
Villa would have to beat Norwich, Queens Park Rangers, Reading, Birmingham and Brighton at home and Burton, Fulham and Blackburn away to do it!
Last year Sheffield Wednesday grabbed sixth place with 74 points.
Wednesday occupy sixth and the final play-off position.
They have 62 points from 38 games so, if they were to take 14 points or more from their final eight games, Villa wouldn’t be able to catch them.
Also, the other five clubs between Villa and the top six – Fulham, Norwich, Preston, Derby and Barnsley – would have to slip to let Bruce’s team capitalise. place
Well, actually there is – but only once. However, a look through the history books shows that all is not quite lost.
Since 2009/10 one team has managed to make it into the play-off places, despite only having 51 points from 38 games – Blackpool.
The Tangerines did have thing going for them that though.
The team in sixth place after 38 games – where Ian Holloway’s side would eventually finish – were Cardiff, who had 59 points to their name.
That was just eight more than Blackpool had, whereas Villa are separated from Wednesday in sixth by 11 points.
Blackpool sneaked points that season. in one year with 70
The remaining 27 teams to finish in the play-off places since 09/10 all had between 55 and 72 points after 38 games.