Second votes will decide run-off between Tories and Labour in tight race for mayor, according to Birmingham Post survey
THE battle to become the first West Midlands mayor is a dead heat between the Conservative and Labour candidates and – crucially – will be settled on second preference votes, an exclusive survey for the Birmingham Post & Mail has revealed.
Conservative Andy Street and Labour’s Siôn Simon each look set to get just under 33 per cent of first preference votes, a survey of almost 2,500 Trinity Mirror readers in the West Midlands suggests.
It means that with two weeks to go until the May 4 polling day, and with a general election campaign now under way, it is all to play for.
Under the supplementary vote system, if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of the votes in the first round, the two with the most stay in the race while all other candidates are eliminated. The second preference votes for eliminated candidates are redistributed to the top two, and a winner declared.
Therefore, the shift of UKIP, Lib Dem, Green and Communist voters to the two remaining candidates will be crucial in deciding the election.
After the second preference vote, our survey found that Mr Simon could just edge ahead at this point, picking up 53 per cent of the votes cast against Mr Street’s 47 per cent.
It would make him the West Midlands first ever metro mayor with responsibility for transport, housing and economic growth – with a £36 million a year budget and the power to guide investment worth £8 billion.
However, with Labour trailing the Tories massively in national polls and the country now in the midst of a General Election campaign, the mayoral battle is essentially too close to call. And given an expected low turn- out of around 20 per cent, it means there will be no wasted vote – each and every one will be keenly fought for and could make the difference.
Our survey used Google technology to randomly invite visitors to Trinity Mirror websites in the region to complete a simple voting intentions questionnaire – there was no opportunity for party activists to game the system.
The survey also showed that while Tory Mr Street trails Labour in Birmingham and Wolverhampton, he has almost 50 per cent of the support in Solihull and almost 40 per cent in Dudley.
However, the sheer size of Birmingham – it accounts for almost 40 per cent of the West Midlands total population – means this is where the election will be won and lost.
It also suggests the battle for second preference votes will see an unlikely alliance of Lib Dem and UKIP voters backing Tory Mr Street, with Mr Simon’s second preference support coming from Greens and Communists.
And despite UKIP’s current disarray following a spate of leadership crises and defections, its candidate, Pete Durnell, is on course to come in third, with 15.7 per cent of the first round votes, more than double that of the Lib Dems’ Beverley Nielsen, on 7.4 per cent. The Greens and Communists trail with 6.7 per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively.
But of concern for all the candidates is the fact that voters do not seem to be engaged with the issues the mayor will be able to tackle. Only nine per cent cited transport as something they were interested in, despite it being one of the few areas where the new mayor will have authority.
Voters were most concerned about the NHS, followed by education and immigration, despite the mayor’s office having little to do with any of these. Skills and council cuts were key concerns for just 14 per cent and 13 per cent of respondents. the vote after second preferences are allocated in our survey. However, it’s tight – and in reality, this could easily go either way in the real vote.
As the strongest third in the first round, UKIP man Pete Durnell’s voters generally transfer their support to Andy Street. Surprisingly, given they are polls apart on Brexit, a large number Lib Dems also turn to the Tories, giving Mr Street a huge boost.
However, it is not quite enough, as with the Green and Communist voters, who mostly switch to Labour, Siôn Simon secures enough support to see him through.
The narrow polling, combined with a low turnout and the as yet unknown impact of the general election campaign swirling around the political world mean that this battle is far from over.