Trump will be bunkered if he doesn’t pitch for diplomacy
doing what it always does. The most unpredictable element in this crisis is Trump.
It appears while his golfing partners take a drag on their Cuban cigars between strokes, the President takes a shot at North Korea on Twitter.
Following recent US military strikes in Syria and Afghanistan, there is no doubt Trump has become emboldened.
But his rising bombastic rhetoric has left him between a rock and a hard place of either having to back down or lose credibility by not taking action.
North Korea is not Syria or Afghanistan. If Trump follows through with military action against Kim it is going to have devastating consequences.
He will, unlike the others, retaliate to any military option.
Clearly, the North Korean despot believes that having nuclear weapons, and holding out the possibility of being able to strike at targets far away, not only ensures the survival of his regime but also prevents preemptive strikes like those against the Syrian airbase or the mountain lair of jihadists in Afghanistan.
Unsurprisingly perhaps, some see Trump’s new muscular foreign policy as a distraction from his troubled domestic agenda.
Others believe North Korea and the States were always going to reach this stage as long as Pyongyang continued to forge ahead with its weapons program.
But unless Trump suddenly swallows a manual on statesmanship the current crisis is far from over.
Much like his campaign and the short time in the White House, the US leader chooses to speak first only to think – if he thinks at all – later.
His intemperate tweets continue to create huge regional tensions, unnerve allies and reinforce North Korea’s longstanding fear that it could one day be attacked by America.
Pyongyang has already warned there will be “all-out war” if America is “reckless enough to use military means” and demanded Trump end his “military hysteria”.
Yet it has not stopped him from picking up his phone to fire off his Tweets.
It would be risky for Trump to let the over-confidence expressed in his posts and public statements, corner him into some kind of showdown with Kim.
The two men hold the same macho traits, and there is no sign either will back down.
South Korea, China, Japan and even Russia have urged both men to avoid a devastating miscalculation.
That the weekend came and went without North Korea conducting its sixth nuclear test in a decade was a relief.
So was the failed missile test carried out by Kim following an almighty military parade on Saturday.
But what is missing in the White House is a coherent strategy that extends beyond Tweets and asking China for help.
Trump needs to be firm, not reckless in his talk, ratchet up sanctions and find a way to engage the North in negotiations.
Peace and security in Asia as well as the rest of the world is at stake.
Unless Trump suddenly swallows a manual on statesmanship the current crisis is far from over