Comment Expect the unexpected in political year to come
POLITICIANS should make the most of their Christmas break. They’ve had a frantic few years, and could probably use a holiday.
We had the Scottish referendum in 2014 and a general election in 2015, followed by a Labour leadership contest.
The EU referendum in 2016 was followed by a second Labour leadership contest and a Conservative leadership contest, as well as the election of Donald Trump as US President.
Then we had a general election in 2017. And of course, Brexit talks have dominated politics all year along with the Prime Minister Theresa May’s efforts to govern without a majority in the House of Commons. Will the next year be any quieter? Perhaps not. Here are some of the things we can expect in 2018...
Brexit The UK Government and the EU will begin talks about a trade deal in earnest.
And Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has said he hopes to get something agreed by October. This would provide time for the EU Parliament and other bodies to approve the deal by the time the UK leaves the EU, probably on March 29, 2019.
It remains to be seen whether a comprehensive trade deal can be signed in this time. It may be that only basic principles are agreed, with further talks continuing during the “implementation period” after the UK quits the EU.
Even so, the biggest issue facing the Government next year will be making progress in talks with the EU.
Theresa May As we get closer to Brexit Day, there will be increasing speculation about Theresa May’s future – and which Conservative MP could replace her as party leader and Prime Minister.
Most Tories assume she’s not going to lead them into the next election. That means she’ll resign at some point between Brexit taking place – March 2019 – and the election, which doesn’t need to be held until 2022 but could take place sooner.
If ambitious Tories think she might resign in the middle of 2019, they’ll be quietly campaigning to replace her by the end of 2018.
Having said that, nobody knows how long Mrs May will last. If there does turn out to be a lengthy implementation period, then she could continue as Prime Minister until it’s over.
Local elections A major test for the parties will be local elections on May 3.
Every seat on Birmingham City Council will be contested.
And a third of seats will be contested in other councils such as Coventry, Dudley, Walsall and Solihull.
Conservatives are worried about the prospect of a bloodbath in London. They think they might lose seats to Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.
If that happened, it would have an impact on politics across the country. It would increase speculation about Mrs May’s future, and further strengthen the position of Mr Corbyn and the Labour left.
Labour After doing better in the 2017 General Election than many predicted, Jeremy Corbyn’s position as Labour leader was secure.
But that doesn’t mean that Labour’s internal battles are over.
Mr Corbyn won’t be there forever, but Labour left-wingers want to ensure the party is transformed into one that represents their ideas.
Labour is holding a Democracy Review, designed to give members more control and to overhaul decision-making structures at every level.
This may lead to MPs having less say in the party is run.
And MPs tend to come from the “moderate” or non-Corbynite tradition within the party, while most party members appear to favour Mr Corbyn’s approach.
Expect some battles over this - though it’s unclear whether the moderates have any stomach for a fight, or any strategy for reclaiming the Labour Party.
Trump US President Donald Trump is to
Politics has been so unpredictable lately that anything’s possible
visit the UK in February, according to reports. It will be a “working visit” rather than a full state visit, so he won’t meet the Queen.
But there may be huge protests in London when he visits the capital open a new US Embassy.
The visit will include talks with the Prime Minister in Downing Street.
Anything could happen Jeremy Corbyn reportedly said that he would become Prime Minister in 2017, in a conversation with Glastonbury Festival founder Michael Eavis.
It hasn’t happened. But he’s now told magazine Grazia that “there will probably be another election in the next 12 months”, adding: “I will probably win. I’m ready to be prime minister tomorrow.”
Who knows? Politics has been so unpredictable lately that anything’s possible.
But some voters are probably hoping we can go at least a year without a referendum or general election.