City voters ‘hold key to whether PM stays in job’
Poor council election results could force leadership contest
BIRMINGHAM’S local elections in May will help decide whether Theresa May continues as Prime Minister or is forced out by her own MPs, according to Westminster insiders.
Elections are taking place on May 3 across the country and, while voters may be influenced by a range of local issues including the performance of their council, the results will be seen as a verdict on the performance of Theresa May and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Attention is focusing on elections in London and in Birmingham. Conservatives are expected to lose seats in both cities.
Tories have 29 councillors in Birmingham. The city is holding “all out” elections in which every seat is contested, and the Conservatives could lose many of the seats they currently hold.
A bad result would be a particular blow because they have traditionally had a strong presence in Birmingham, in contrast to other big cities such as Liverpool or Manchester.
Conservatives ran Birmingham City Council, though without an overall majority of councillors, as recently as 2012. The Spectator, a national political magazine with close links to the Conservative Party, highlighted the importance of Birmingham.
James Forsyth, the journal’s political editor, wrote this week: “In a few months, Theresa May will take her party into local elections and if she leads them into a series of historic defeats there will be a reckoning. Those pressing to act against her are now convinced that losses in these elections — expected to be particularly steep in London and Birmingham — will offer the best chance to garner enough signatures for a no-confidence vote.
“The opinion polls suggest the Tories are level pegging with Labour; the actual elections could suggest that they are in fact heading for disaster.”
Local Tories say privately they are braced for a poor result, and every Birmingham seat they currently hold outside of Sutton Coldfield could go.
It seems that more Conservative MPs are starting to believe Mrs May should resign.
According to one tabloid newspaper, a government Minister is planning to resign and denounce Mrs May in a House of Commons speech.
Sir Graham Brady, the leader of backbench Conservative MPs, has asked colleagues to stop sending him letters demanding a leadership contest.
Under party rules, a contest takes place if he receives 48 letters from Tory MPs, and his comment suggests he’s close to that amount.
Mrs May insisted she would not resign when speaking to journalists on a visit to China.