The Brexit numbers May does not want you to see
THE economy of the West Midlands will suffer massive damage as a result of Brexit and shrink by eight per cent, even if there is a comprehensive trade deal, the government’s own analysis shows.
And if we crash out of the EU without a deal – an option the government says it hope to avoid but has not ruled out – then GDP in the West Midlands will be hit by 13 per cent.
The devastating effect on jobs and wages in the region is revealed in impact assessments which the government attempted to keep secret.
They confirm that the West Midlands, with its manufacturing industries, would be harder hit than any most other parts of the UK.
However, the economy of the North East would suffer even more.
The analysis shows the impact of leaving the EU over 15 years compared to what would happen to the UK economy if Brexit didn’t take place.
Information first emerged at the end of January, when details were obtained by website Buzzfeed.
MPs were then permitted to see them in “a confidential reading room” – and more details have now been leaked to the media.
Sky News and the BBC both separately published the regional breakdown. They have still not been published officially, and government policy is that they should remain confidential.
The analysis shows that Brexit would mean the West Midlands economy shrank by 2.5 per cent even if the UK remained a member of the Single Market.
This “best-case scenario” appears highly unlikely, as both Labour and the Conservative Government insist that Brexit must involve leaving the single market.
The BBC reports that the UK car industry’s GDP would shrink by one per cent if the UK remained in the EU single market, but would lose eight per cent if there was a free trade agreement and 8.5 per cent if the UK left without a deal and went to World Trade Organisation rules.
Birmingham Selly Oak MP Steve McCabe said: “The figures are very worrying. What they show is that if we end up in a situation where we can’t secure a favourable trade arrangement, it’s going to do untold damage.”
Liberal Democrats said the analysis strengthened the case for holding a second referendum on Brexit.
Lib Dem Brexit spokesperson Tom Brake said: “This is a damning outlook for the West Midlands. The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the Midlands.
“The government need to start being clear what they are fighting for. They are still keeping no deal on the table despite how crippling it would be to the regional economy.
“People did not vote to make themselves poorer. They should be allowed a vote on the final deal and a chance to exit from Brexit.”
Across the UK as a whole, leaving the EU with a deal would hit GDP by five per cent. Brexit without a free trade deal would shrink the UK economy by eight per cent, and staying in the single market would mean the economy was reduced by two per cent.
Under every scenario, London would be the region hurt the least.
Prime Minister Theresa May has chaired the first of two key Brexit meetings with senior ministers as the government attempts to clarify its position.
The Brexit cabinet committee is to sketch out what the future relationship between the UK and EU might look like. A meeting was held on Wednesday and another takes place on Thursday.
As the Commons has been promised a vote on any deal with the EU, and EU institutions will also need to approve it, some sort of agreement is likely to be needed by October.
But at this stage it seems the government still hasn’t decided what sort of agreement it wants, leaving little time for negotiations.
The devastating effect on jobs and wages in the region is revealed in impact assessments which the Government attempted to keep secret
Mrs May vowed to be “robust” in Brexit talks after Brussels released papers showing it wants to put in place a method to rapidly curtail the UK’s single market benefits if it breaches agreements on a transition deal.
Asked during Prime Minister’s Questions if she would see off any “threats” from the European Union, Mrs May said: “We will be robust in our arguments.
“As I have said right from the very beginning we will hear noises off. We will hear all sorts of things being said about positions that are being taken.
“What matters is the positions we take in the negotiations as we sit down and negotiate the best deal. We’ve shown we can do that. We did it in December and we are going to do it again.”
Under plans released by the European Commission, Brussels would be able to restrict the UK’s access to the single market without going through the lengthy European Court of Justice (ECJ) legal process.