Putin sure to retaliate... and pressure will grow on Trump
It was a move that was well overdue for Donald Trump, whose long refusal to criticise Putin and hesitancy to act against Russia’s malign behaviour, has raised suspicions Moscow knows secrets it could use to blackmail the American President.
His administration’s decision to kick out 60 of the Russian leader’s spies offers some hope the President may finally be forced to deal with the threat the Kremlin poses to the States and its Western allies. But the emphasis is on “hope”. If there is one thing we have learned during Trump’s tenure in the White House, it is that this president has repeatedly shown he is very capable of doing things previously considered unthinkable.
And that’s all the more reason to be glad he did not do so this time.
There is no doubt the expulsion of Russian spies is a blow to Putin’s intelligence services, but it is only temporary.
Moscow’s harmful operations in the West extend far beyond the agents it dispatches under diplomatic cover.
It has an army of trolls and hackers operating online, many of whom have been busy attempting to sow confusion about responsibility for the use of the nerve agent on Sergei Skripal and his daughter.
Putin depends on a network of government ministers and business owners to fund these operations.
That is the real foundation of his regime, and so far it has barely been touched.
Putin almost certainly will retaliate. That will further disrupt the ability of the two nations and the UK to work on serious challenges, like defusing a new nuclear arms race and ending the war in Syria.
If there is any good to come from Russia’s actions in Salisbury, it is that it has now backed Trump into a political corner.
The President still panders to Putin, even as he intensifies criticism of the special counsel, Robert Mueller, and the former FBI director’s investigation into Trump associates’ web of Russian ties.
The most recent example occurred last week when Trump, who has scarce calls with the leaders of America’s closest allies, made a point of calling Putin to congratulate him on his recent fraudulent re-election.
Missing from the call was any scolding for the nerve-gas attack that prompted Monday’s expulsions or any demand that Putin stops meddling in American elections.
Instead, he promised to meet the Russian leader soon before taking to Twitter to argue, again, that “getting along with Russia (and others) is a good thing”.
Getting along would be good, on the right terms.
But it’s not feasible as long as the Kremlin is dedicated to disrupting Western governments and elections, overthrowing neighbours such as Ukraine, and murdering its opponents on foreign soil using banned chemical agents. Putin needs to be deterred. Expelling a few dozen of his spies is a step in the right direction, but it does not suffice.
The world is waiting, Mr President.
And watching.
Moscow’s harmful operations in the West extend far beyond the agents it dispatches under diplomatic cover