Is half of the HS2 route to the North about to hit the buffers?
THE review into the HS2 high speed rail line is coming to an end, with the panel set to hold their final meeting this week.
Their findings are expected to be presented to Transport Secretary Grant Shapps within a fortnight.
That’s not to say they will be made public in the near future.
For Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, one of the benefits of holding a review was that it allows him to avoid expressing an opinion about whether or not he personally thinks the HS2 high speed rail project should go ahead, which would have been handy during a general election campaign.
But his plans for an election on October 15 were rejected by the House of Commons, and nobody knows when a poll will take place.
It’s possible the Government will find a way to avoid announcing a decision about HS2 for some time to come.
The review is chaired by Douglas Oakervee, a former chair of both Crossrail and HS2 Ltd.
Other members include West Midlands Mayor Andy Street and John Cridland, a former Director General of the CBI who now chairs Transport for the North, the subregional transport authority in the North of England.
It is set to conclude that HS2 should go ahead.
But it will also propose measures to cut costs.
This follows the admission from HS2 Ltd that the scheme cannot be delivered within its budget of £55.7 billion, which was set in 2015.
Instead, the cost has risen to between £72 billion and £78 billion, again in 2015 prices. That means it will cost between £81 and £88 billion, in today’s money.
Options include cutting the speed of HS2 trains from a planned 250mph to 210mph, which is expected to save £8 billion.
The panel has also looked at a series of other options (including scrapping HS2 entirely), although the fact that they have been considered does not mean that the review will come out in favour of them.
According to one report, casualties of the cost over-run could include proposed line linking Birmingham with the East Midlands and Leeds.
Under the current proposals, HS2 will run north from London to Birmingham, and then split into two lines. The first of these would head north west, to Manchester, and the second would run north east, to Leeds.
The Financial Times reported that the review has looked at axing the Birmingham to Leeds line, which would also include an East Midlands Hub station near Nottingham.
Instead, HS2 could take advantage of a proposed new line linking Leeds and Manchester. This is part of a related rail project known variously as Northern Powerhouse Rail, Crossrail for the North or HS3.
It would mean that HS2 runs north, from London to Birmingham and on to Manchester, and then east, to Leeds.
This sparked alarm among council and business leaders in the North of England.
Their fear is that calls to scrap or downgrade HS2 won’t affect the London to Birmingham section of the planned network, but will threaten the northern section.
In response, a Transport for the North spokesman said it would be “a huge missed opportunity if the current ambition for HS2 and the benefits it could deliver for the North East of England are scaled back; and
The review has looked at axing the Birmingham to Leeds line, which would also include an East Midlands Hub station near Nottingham...
such a decision would be seen as out of touch with what northern leaders would expect as part of a truly 21st century pan-northern rail network.”
Axing the eastern leg of HS2 would also be a blow to the “Midlands Engine” project, which is designed to boost the economies of the East Midlands and West Midlands by encouraging more co-operation between the two regions. Better transport links are an important part of this scheme.
But this is only one of the changes the panel has been considering.
Others include scrapping plans to bring HS2 into London’s Euston station, and instead using a major new station at Old Oak Common, in west London, as the way into the capital.
HS2 trains are already due to stop at Old Oak Common, where passengers will be able to change for services to Heathrow or to catch a Crossrail train (to be branded the Elizabeth Line), taking them right into the centre of London.
But while this option has been considered, rail insiders point out that significant preparatory work has already taken place at Euston.
Meanwhile, calls for HS2 to be scrapped entirely continue.
Think tank the Adam Smith Institute is the latest body to call for the scheme to be abandoned.
In a new report, it said: “HS2 is unnecessarily fast for the relatively short distances it covers, will undermine access to intermediate stations and is likely to result in increased fares for travellers.”
Instead, it suggested options including upgrading the existing West Coast Main Line.
The proposed new Curzon Street station in Birmingham could go ahead even without HS2, it said, given that Birmingham New Street station is already operating at capacity.
Supporters of HS2 are preparing to fight. Once the Oakervee review is completed, political leaders in the North and Midlands are set to join forces to step up a campaign to ensure HS2 goes ahead – in full.