Devolution case does not need over-egging
ALWAYS read the small print, we’re constantly urged in respect of contracts and advertisements.
Survey findings can be similarly tricksy, and the advice here is: always check the totals, the actual numbers of interviewees who reportedly gave a particular response – especially if that response becomes a headline.
“New polling finds public overwhelmingly back more devolution to their cities” was the upbeat and arguably OTT headline chosen by urban policy think tank Centre for Cities to publicise its survey of all eight city-regions electing metro-mayors on May 6 – including the West Midlands.
It was a recent Savanta Com/Res telephone survey of a necessarily largish sample of 3,500: 500-plus residents in Greater London, Manchester, Liverpool, West Midlands, and West Yorkshire, and 250-plus in Cambridgeshire/ Peterborough, Tees Valley, and West of England.
Which is statistically respectable for “all residents” responses, though inevitably less so when it comes to age, social class, and ethnic subgroups.
Back first, though, to that “overwhelming” public backing, described as 83 per cent across the whole sample reportedly supporting “some form of greater devolution to English cities”. Hmmm.
The trouble is that ‘devolution’ can be almost a ‘motherhood and apple pie’ issue – or this week a Duke of Edinburgh issue: one of those basic values we all agree is a ‘good thing’.
It at least needed interrogating, so I started, naturally, with the West Midlands sample of 526 respondents.
If over 80 per cent want more devolution, how much, I wondered, do they reckon we’ve got at present.
Interesting, because only 70 per cent even knew, or guessed, we already have an elected mayor, whose existence is surely the cornerstone of this Government’s devolution programme.
By comparison, 87 per cent of Greater Manchester respondents and 84 per cent of Liverpudlians knew their city regions have mayors.
But so too guessed 44 per cent of West Yorkshire folk... even though they don’t get to elect their first mayor till May 6.
Which gives pause for thought regarding some of the other survey questions, and meant the next one certainly stumped those West Yorkshire respondents – naming the said mayor.
It’s obviously less testing if you actually have a mayor, and an impressive 63 per cent of
Mancunians could name Andy Burnham, 60 per cent Greater
It was that 83 per cent wanting more of what only 70 per cent realised they already had that temporarily bemused me
London’s Sadiq Khan – and 30 per cent of West Midlanders got Andy Street.
But it was that 83 per cent wanting more of what only 70 per cent realised they already had that temporarily bemused me, because initially I couldn’t find it anywhere.
Then I did, lurking at the bottom of Page 40 – and not a response to an asked question at all, but a compiled response to a multi-part question.
“The mayor of (named region) has some responsibility for skills and training, transport, housing, and promoting the city nationally and internationally – currently shared with national Government.
“Which of the following six policy areas do you believe the mayor should have more direct responsibility over?”
In most regions, West Midlands included, “providing affordable housing”, “supporting businesses”, and “providing access to skills and training” were each favoured by 40 per cent or more respondents; bus services, local trains, and tax and spending by roughly one in three.
With not one individual policy area backed for devolution by more than 55 per cent of any city sample, to describe this as “overwhelming public support for devolution” seemed – well, stretching the evidence.
There is no public clamour for devolution, however you play with statistics.
Just a massively compelling case for it, greatly boosted by the Government’s ham-fisted handling of Covid, and, gradually at least, increasingly acknowledged and embraced by the public.
For the time being, and certainly in these elections, let’s work with that.