Output soars as region emerges from lockdown

ECONOMIC output in the West Midlands rose last month at its quickest pace in seven months, according to the latest NatWest PMI report.

The report, which is a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors, improved from 51.1 in February to 60.7 in March.

The reading pointed to the sharpest rate of expansion in private sector output in seven months and one that outpaced the national average.

The bank’s analysis suggests that local companies associated the upturn with the tentative easing of coronavirus restrictions, new order growth and enhanced capacity.

Private sector firms in the West Midlands noted renewed growth of new orders during March, following back-to-back declines at the start of the year.

According to panellists, the upturn was supported by strengthening demand conditions, improved client confidence and the loosening of restrictions.

Evidence suggests the vaccination programme and the roadmap for the lifting of restrictions underpinned positive expectations among local companies towards the year-ahead outlook for business activity.

Firms also expect marketing efforts, product diversification and investments to lead to output growth.

Positive sentiment climbed to its highest level since January 2017 and was above the UK average. Private sector jobs in the West Midlands increased during March, ending a 13-month sequence of contraction. Furthermore, the rate of expansion was solid and the quickest since May 2019. Those companies that hired additional staff mentioned greater output needs and efforts to meet demand.

Backlogs of work at West Midlands private sector companies rose in March, ending a two-month sequence of reduction.

Survey members indicated delays in the delivery of key items needed to complete pending work, a surge in new orders and prior reductions to headcounts all caused the accumulation in outstanding business.

Input prices faced by companies operating in the West Midlands rose for the ninth month running at the end of the first quarter and at the quickest pace since February 2017.

Among the reasons cited for the increase in cost burdens were material shortages, supply bottlenecks, limited freight capacity and higher prices for a wide range of items.

John Maude, NatWest Midlands and East regional board member, said: “West Midlands companies welcomed a surge in new work intakes during March which they responded to by lifting business activity and employment accordingly. The strength of the upturn was somewhat unexpected, with a number of firms suggesting that outstanding business rose due to the rebound in demand and prior reductions to staff numbers. Backlogs of work increased to the greatest extent on record, which in turn supported a solid expansion in hiring activity.”