City disquiet may see voters put their trust inTories again
SOURCES in both the local Conservative Party and local Labour Party believe Labour could lose control of Birmingham City Council in next year's elections.
All 101 council seats in the city will be contested, in the vote on May 5.
The city used to elect a third of councillors at a time, with polls held in three years out of every four.
This was changed by Eric Pickles, a former Local Government Secretary, who said having all-out elections every four years would make long-term planning easier.
But it also allows for dramatic changes to the council's composition. At the moment there are 65 Labour councillors, 27 Conservatives, eight Liberal Democrats and one Green councillor. Labour are easily the largest party, but that could change overnight.
Birmingham had a Conservativeled administration between 2004 and 2012, working with the Liberal Democrats to form a "progressive partnership".
There was never a Tory majority, but for some years there were more Conservative councillors than
Labour councillors.
There are politicians in both major parties who think the Conservatives could regain control of Birmingham in 2022.
Nobody believes Conservatives will win overall control – ie, a majority of council seats – but it's thought they could gain enough to form another arrangement with the Lib Dems.
Why? It's very straightforward. Many Birmingham voters (so it's believed) are unhappy with the state of the city and want change.
Particular issues include the growing number of houses in multiple occupation, known as HMOs.
These are homes that have been converted for use by a number of households, ranging from single people to parents with children, who generally get their own bedroom and share facilities such as a living room.
Critics say these "change the character" of neighbourhoods,
Labour politicians fear the sleaze issue is harming both parties
leading to an increase in anti-social behaviour and litter.
HMOs include properties known as “exempt accommodation”, so-called because they are exempt from rules limiting the amount of rent that can be covered by benefits.
These are used to house tenants who need support getting their lives together, ranging from people who recently left prison to victims of domestic violence.
Of course, residents in these properties need somewhere to live.
Many of those in exempt accommodation will have had hard lives, and those in standard HMOs are just people who need a cheap home.
Even so, the growing number of these properties is a concern and while the council has very little control over residential properties (the authority is in the process of seeking more powers to regulate landlords), it gets the blame anyway.
Other concerns include the general state of the streets, including litter and anti-social behaviour, and the city's Clean Air Zone, a road-charging scheme which appears to be more popular in middle class neighbourhoods than working class districts.
Whether any of this is enough to remove Labour from power in Birmingham remains to be seen. But people in both major parties think it could happen.
It's striking how much of a contrast there is with the mood at Westminster at the moment, including among journalists.
There was a sense, this week, that the scales have tipped. For a long time, Boris Johnson looked like a winner, but he's come to be seen as a liability for the Conservative Party. That means it's open season on the Prime Minister.
Consider his speech to the CBI on Monday. It was embarrassing that Mr Johnson lost his place, muttering “forgive me” three times. But what
people focused on was his reference to visiting Peppa Pig World, and the general rambling nature of his comments.
However, Mr Johnson's speeches have always sounded as if he's making it up as he goes along. I suspect they are deliberately written that way. And they tend to include moments where he goes off at a tangent with some strange personal anecdote.
When he spoke in Coventry in July about levelling up, he recalled a visit to East Germany in 1990, “a place of strange little cars with two stroke engines and fake coffee”.
The difference is that Mr Johnson used to be indulged. His quirks were overlooked, or portrayed as part of his appeal to voters.
That's changed. The media, at least for now, have decided not to laugh at his jokes.
To some extent, they may be taking their lead from Conservative MPs, many of whom were understandably angry that Mr Johnson ordered them to defend former North Shropshire MP Owen Paterson in a row over
sleaze, only to carry out a swift U-turn.
There's also concern over policy blunders, such as last week's rail announcement – which was a PR disaster, at the very least – and concern about the deteriorating relationship between Number 10 and the Treasury.
But the key question is whether this is Westminster bubble stuff, or whether it's going to affect how people vote.
And the view of people who actually knock on doors in Birmingham is that, so far, it's the former.
Indeed, Labour politicians fear the sleaze issue is harming both parties, as it lowers voters' opinions of politicians in general, not the Tories in particular.
There's a long way to go until a general election.
The next few years may see the cost of living rise significantly for many people, causing them real worry, and you'd tend to think the Tories will be in deep trouble if that happens.
But it's far too soon to write Boris Johnson's political obituary.