40% could be off work within weeks

MASSIVE disruption is ahead for Birmingham and the Black Country amid predictions as many as 40% of workers could be off at once as Omicron case rates continue to rise.

Already struggling public services, healthcare, schools and urgent help organisations will see rising absences from now on as sickness and isolation rules keep thousands off work.

“We are about to go into the most difficult phase of the pandemic in terms of civil disruption,” warned Birmingham’s public health chief Dr Justin Varney.

“We should be planning for significant sickness absences in all services until at least the middle to end of February,” he said. “The disruption to society will not be because people are dying, but because so many people are sick or having to isolate and stay home and not come to work. The modelling we have seen is that at least 20%, and up to 40%, of staff, will be off sick at one time.”

That means services may be limited to the most critical.

He also had more stark predictions including:

Expect work from home guidance to stay in place until at least Easter.

A further wave of Covid-19 next winter, fuelled by low vaccination rates in more deprived parts of the world, is highly likely.

The introduction of annual Covid boosters, similar to the yearly flu vaccine, is likely for at least the next 3-4 years.

Dr Varney added: “I would plan to be working from home until at least after Easter and would be surprised if there was any row back until at least then. The rest of January and February will be very difficult,” he warned.

When asked to predict the months ahead, he told the gathering: “Looking at the history books, if this does what pandemic flu did in 1918 then we have one more wave to go, but that final fifth wave won’t come until the winter. My expectation is that after this round of boosters, Covid will become an annual jab for all ages, probably for the next three to four years, similar to the flu jab cycle. That will help us manage those continued waves and new variants.”

While Covid admissions to hospital continue to rise in Birmingham, the number of deaths has plateaued.

In the latest weekly data, positive cases in the city and the numbers admitted to University Hospitals Birmingham Trust sites jumped 17 per cent, but deaths and those in intensive care units with the disease remain low.

There were 18,258 cases, the vast majority of which are now the Omicron variant, in the week to January 6.

That compared to 15,568 Covid cases in the week to December 31 – a rise of 17.3 per cent.