THE PREDICTION
Matt Christie makes the call on the rematch that is so difficult to call
We analyse the fight and lay it all on the line by picking the winner
AFTER a tight opening four rounds last September, Gennady Golovkin gained control over Canelo Alvarez via a sweeping right hand in the fifth. It was the perfect hit. The kind of punch that spelt impending disaster for so many who’d felt it before. The Mexican’s barrel of a body barely moved but his eyes rolled for a second. Then he shook his head for 30 more as Golovkin pinned him against the ropes and let rip. That didn’t hurt. No sir, not even a little bit. That one might have done though. Yep, that one definitely hurt. Must. Keep. Shaking. Head…
That story intensified over the next few rounds. Some suggested Canelo got his tactics wrong in sessions five to nine as he retreated to the ropes, but it was Golovkin – demonic, suffocating, skilled – who made the Mexican fight that way. It was the memorable whack in round five, disguised beautifully behind a double jab, that left Canelo unable, or at the very least unwilling, to engage bar the occasional counter. This was not the Canelo who sat back and waited to knock out Liam Smith or James Kirkland. This was a hurt and cautious Canelo. And just when it seemed that hurt and cautious Canelo might become broken and beaten Canelo, he sprang to life after his corner had a word in his ear at the end of round nine.
In the 10th, awake and alert Canelo found the space to hurl his honey punch. The mighty overhand right hand clattered into Golovkin with such force the Kazakh’s head slammed sideward. The impact was clear. Yet “GGG”, after taking the best his opponent could offer, power that had starched Kirkland and Amir Khan not so long before, continued to stalk his rival like a man possessed. There was no head shaking or retreating or second guessing. Problem was, perhaps, neither was there a second thought. He kept coming forward just like he had in round one. Like he had in round five. And like he would in round 12. Always looking for the chance to end
matters with the swipe of his mitts. But those forward marches, when Canelo was awake and alert Canelo, often came to little. Golovkin’s feet, it seemed, lacked the care and control they used to have in abundance.
It was for that reason, as the final bell clanged, I thought Alvarez – with a few tweaks here and there – would fare better against the ageing Golovkin in a rematch. But at that comparatively serene moment, minutes before the announcement of one scorecard turned the atmosphere toxic, I did not think we would see them in the ring again. Despite Alvarez’s success in the last few rounds, I doubted there would be much demand for an encore. Because, for me and almost all observers inside the T-mobile Arena, Golovkin had proved he was the better fighter over 36 minutes of combat. Best of 72 did not seem necessary. And then of course it happened. The landslide card for Canelo. The draw. They would have to do it again.
The rematch was set, then cancelled when Canelo tested positive for clenbuterol, then hastily rescheduled when his crime was deemed forgivable. And that subject of drugs must be a factor when considering who’s going to win.
The cynical might say that Canelo will not be the Canelo we saw in Part I. He won’t be as strong or durable or quick because, and let’s be careful here, his preparation might not be quite the same as it was last time. Consequently, if he takes the kind of punch Golovkin landed in round five of their 2017 clash, he may struggle to stand tall and shake his head in defiance. Additionally, he might not have the stamina required to boss ring centre and keep the Kazak off him. Or the strength to land the kind of wallop that caused Golovkin’s head to boomerang so cinematically in their opener. So, say the cynics, if you take away his power and resilience and endurance, what is he left with? Not enough to win, that’s for sure.
But, of course, the reality. Whether he was clean for the first fight or not, it’s true that being clean for the second won’t suddenly turn him into weakling who can’t fight. And how clean is clean? Certainly, Canelo appears to have proved he will be as clean as he possibly can be. As clean as the current testing technology will allow. As clean as an elite athlete can be seven months after a test said completely the opposite.
Indeed, opinion is split on Canelo’s guilt. But those who now champion him for agreeing to rigorous testing should also remember that it should be the duty of every athlete to pass drug tests. And just because he’s now falling over himself to prove he’s drug-free does not mean we just ignore the signs which indicate that has not always been the case.
And seven months might be enough to pass tests, but it’s not long enough for the benefits of long-term PED use – should that have occurred – to be reversed completely.
So, if there is a decline in his key attributes, they will likely be minimal at this stage. But, in fights like this, it’s the tiniest details that make the difference between winning and losing. And if those tiny details exist, Canelo will be acutely aware of them already. In turn, they could play havoc with his confidence. Not only that, the pressure to perform under this kind of scrutiny will be incredible.
But then we have to consider the possibility that Canelo has always been a clean athlete, that the clenbuterol in his system was a consequence of one of the most marketable athletes on the planet haphazardly eating contaminated meat. If that’s the case, and it might be, then Canelo – after spending the last year out of the ring, getting his injured knee sorted, and fuelled by a sense of injustice – should fancy his chances greatly. Now Golovkin. It’s feasible, logical even, that the 36-year-old will have declined since September last year. He’s been showing those signs for at least two years. Some suggested he was struggling too much with Willie Monroe Jnr back in 2015 but it was the success Kell Brook had against him the following year that highlighted he was not invincible. Daniel Jacobs then came incredibly close to beating him in 2017. Those fights alone should tell us that one year on from the first Canelo war, he is likely to have slipped further. Even against Vanes Martisrosyan this year, Golovkin was not difficult to hit. The slide might only be a gentle one. But it might be just enough to sway this in Canelo’s favour. So once more we look at the first fight. Again, I address that old gut instinct that told me Canelo would win a return. Canelo can certainly change and adapt. He might be able to up his attacks to the body to slow his rival down, to stand his ground when necessary. It’s also feasible that – after a year restoring his body to full health and getting used to the middleweight limit – he could look better than we’ve seen him before. Quicker, more explosive, wiser. But with Canelo, given the drug controversy and the effect it may or may not have on
GOLOVKIN WILL FEEL IT IS HIS DESTINY TO WIN THIS CONTEST
his mind and body, it’s pure guesswork, gut instinct or otherwise.
With Golovkin, even ageing Golovkin, we have more to go on. He and trainer Abel Sanchez will have, we presume, watched the first fight many times. They will have seen that, with a little step here and there, Gennady could have set a trap for Canelo every time the Mexican ducked and danced away to his left. They will have realised that if GGG had varied his attack to the body as well as the the head, Canelo – even 2017 Canelo – may not have heard the final bell.
Psychologically, Golovkin is rock solid. That’s a fact. He will be super-charged from a sense of wrong-doing, confident he won the last fight comfortably. And, though he’s not quite what he was, he is an awesome fighter who will push his body to the limit to stave off defeat. This too can be taken as read. He will feel that it is his destiny to win this contest and the boxing world – after the dodgy scoring first time and, more so, the subsequent drug row – is eager to see the right man win. And the right man, considering only what we know, is GGG.
But in boxing, unless you operate exclusively in the fantasy land of Rocky Balboa, karma does not exist. If Golovkin wins, it will not be down to fate. It will be because he fought harder. It will be because he is the better fighter and he deserved to win. Or so we like to think.
We should not forget the shambolic officiating last time. If this bout goes 12 rounds again, irrespective of how close or wide it may appear, the whole world will be on the edge of their seats waiting for the officials’ scores. History shows us that judges can be ‘kinder’ to the fighter previously on the wrong end of the bad decision. And those judges – Dave Moretti (who scored 115-113 for Golovkin last year), Steve Weisfeld and Glenn Feldman – will all be feeling the pressure. But this preview is already cluttered with more mysteries than a whodunnit. Trying to predict what the judges will do, in Las Vegas no less, is conjecture at best.
And so we make the call with the facts that we have. While I can still feel a victory for Canelo rumbling in my gut, the facts point to Golovkin. There’s too much about Canelo that we just don’t know. Golovkin was the better of the two last time and had long periods of dominance. His strength of mind is bordering on unbreakable. He will find his groove quicker this time only for Canelo to again make it tight. But the pick is for GGG to get the nod on the cards.
At the last bell we might feel that Canelo could do better next time, but what happens in Part III is a conundrum for another day.
IT’S FEASIBLE THAT CANELO COULD LOOK BETTER THAN EVER